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[0:00] Welcome to the Anton Stener podcast.
[0:02] Today I have one question for you. How
[0:05] many more tech bros are going to get
[0:07] fired in the Seattle area? Because I'm
[0:09] hearing a lot of people getting laid
[0:11] off. They're leaving Seattle and
[0:14] Washington state. It's kind of crazy
[0:16] what's happening right now, Anton. Uh
[0:19] the city of Seattle uh there was data
[0:22] that was just released that said they
[0:24] posted 18,65
[0:28] fewer jobs than they did in 2024. You
[0:31] know, literally just a year ago. And
[0:34] Seattle is is showing a sharp drop in
[0:38] pending home sales. And so what
[0:41] everyone's literally been asking is
[0:43] like, hey, if we have tech workers, and
[0:46] we know our tech workers are some of our
[0:47] highest paid employees, and we know tech
[0:49] represents like 22%
[0:52] of the GDP here in Washington state,
[0:54] like how many tech workers have to get
[0:57] laid off before prices get dramatically
[1:00] affected or possibly even crash? And
[1:03] this was this came in as a question that
[1:06] was essentially worded from the
[1:07] audience. I was like, "Oh my goodness,
[1:09] that's such a good question. We want to
[1:10] make sure that we that we answer this."
[1:13] And so we went and did the real research
[1:15] because it's not always what people
[1:17] think, and we'll give it to you here in
[1:20] the next 20 minutes, what's actually
[1:22] happening with these layoffs and how
[1:24] many tech workers would have to be laid
[1:26] off in order to get a crash.
[1:29] But it's not the people necessarily
[1:31] getting fired.
[1:32] It's the ones that still have a job. And
[1:35] it's that rising fear, uncertainty, and
[1:38] doubt that causes people just to go and
[1:41] clam up and pause and not do anything.
[1:44] Like what do humans do when they're
[1:46] afraid?
[1:47] >> They don't do anything. They just stay
[1:49] still or maybe even like make uh brash
[1:52] decisions like without really thinking
[1:55] about long-term consequences.
[1:58] >> That's exactly what they do. They're
[2:00] they're in their emotions and so they'd
[2:03] rather not make a decision than to make
[2:05] the wrong decision.
[2:08] And on top of this, there is a type of
[2:10] property and it's not luxury properties
[2:13] here in the Seattle metro where pendings
[2:15] are down 38%. It's getting just freaking
[2:18] rocked, just crushed. And then
[2:20] realtor.com just said that this this
[2:23] week, like coming next week, starting on
[2:26] the 18th of October, is going to be the
[2:29] best time to buy in Seattle. We'll talk
[2:30] about that because that's only days
[2:33] away. All right. Well, let's jump into
[2:37] it. You know, uh it's always the
[2:40] question, right? When are we going to
[2:41] get to the crash that we've been waiting
[2:43] for now for 16 years? Uh it it's pretty
[2:48] depressing right now because winter's
[2:49] here, it's getting darker. It it's cold.
[2:52] I mean, literally, it's cold here in the
[2:54] podcast studio. But I think a lot of
[2:56] people are kind of depressed because
[2:59] there's there is a lot of uncertainty.
[3:02] I mean, what's what's uh what's every
[3:05] homeowner, buyer, investor asking right
[3:08] now?
[3:09] So I think yes there is uncertainty in
[3:12] the market and yes that the market has
[3:17] cooled and that fear, uncertainty and
[3:20] doubt that FUD is causing everyone to
[3:23] question what's going on. But I think
[3:25] we're also buying into these negative
[3:27] headlines a little bit. So I want to
[3:29] kind of break it down. Demand is
[3:32] freezing without major distress.
[3:36] Sellers aren't dumping their homes.
[3:38] Foreclosures are still at a historic
[3:41] low. Buyers that have jobs have great
[3:45] jobs. And on top of that, there's a
[3:48] second shock that no one is connecting
[3:51] inside of these stories. So, what we're
[3:53] going to do is we're going to look at
[3:54] the data first. We're going to talk
[3:56] about what matters to you, whether
[4:00] you're buying, you're selling, you're
[4:01] investing, or you're a real estate
[4:03] broker here. and we'll bring all of that
[4:08] essentially together. I'm Anton Steden.
[4:11] We've been selling real estate here
[4:12] since the early 2000s. We've sold
[4:14] thousands of homes during the great
[4:17] financial crisis. Everything was
[4:19] dropping like a rock and everyone's
[4:24] starting to trying to compare. Oh no,
[4:25] this is just like the GFC. This is
[4:28] nothing like the GFC. And we'll go
[4:30] through the data because we played that
[4:32] game during then. And there are is a
[4:35] playbook for buyers. There's a playbook
[4:37] for sellers. There's a playbook for
[4:38] investors right now. You can hit us up
[4:41] at rsg.com if you want to chat about
[4:43] that.
[4:44] >> Hit that subscribe button. Hit the hype
[4:46] button. We need more people to see these
[4:48] messages.
[4:50] >> And let's start talking about some of
[4:53] these layoffs and where we're at. Oh, I
[4:56] was just going to say though, I'm
[4:57] definitely one of those buyers, sellers
[5:00] even that's just frozen in place
[5:02] because, you know, I've been wanting to
[5:04] literally build a house for over 10
[5:06] years.
[5:07] >> And I' I've been looking for property
[5:09] kind of knowing I wanted a a bigger
[5:11] house and that was before I had five
[5:13] kids. And a lot of people look at our
[5:16] family and see the size of my house,
[5:18] which is 2200 ft. I designed it very
[5:21] strategically so it could literally uh
[5:23] house us forever before we knew we were
[5:25] going to have five kids. So it's pretty
[5:27] tight in there and now you know like
[5:29] sometimes Judy's dad lives with us.
[5:31] >> But I don't want to sell or move or buy
[5:35] or even build
[5:36] >> because of interest rates. Yeah.
[5:38] >> So, if you put on top of it my kind of
[5:42] like anticipation for price drops
[5:45] because of especially these layoffs, I'm
[5:48] a good example of exactly what that like
[5:50] my psyche. And the thing is I'm probably
[5:52] more optimistic than most people. I was
[5:54] just kidding around about the weather
[5:56] even though I don't like the dark,
[5:57] cloudy, long winter of Washington State,
[6:00] Western Washington. But I know a lot of
[6:03] people are also like myself in terms of
[6:06] like, hey, I want to keep my low
[6:08] interest rate.
[6:09] >> Uh I I don't want to get into something
[6:12] double the price even if it I kind of
[6:14] need it, right? So they're like forcing
[6:17] just staying put. But then the the
[6:19] layoffs is what's crazy because the uh
[6:22] financial crazy the crisis, right? the
[6:25] layoffs started creating people having
[6:29] like uh lack of paying their mortgage
[6:31] which created short sales and
[6:33] forclosures and then then the price
[6:35] really dropped like by 30% I think in
[6:37] some areas.
[6:38] >> Yeah. So if you're talking about the GFC
[6:40] that was a that was a really big drop
[6:41] when you bring mortgages in that's one
[6:43] of the five pipes that we're going to
[6:45] talk about later that kind of fills out
[6:49] this story. When I dug into this data
[6:51] though about actual tech layoffs, I so I
[6:55] was like, man, these these headlines
[6:57] have to be scarier than they are. No,
[7:00] these headlines were actually kind of
[7:01] pretty real. Nationally, tech layoffs
[7:04] are up 54%
[7:07] this year.
[7:09] >> Wow.
[7:12] 165,925
[7:15] US tech job cuts announced through
[7:18] February, up 54% from basically 108,000
[7:23] a year earlier. Tech is 29% of all cuts.
[7:26] Now, I'm talking nationally right now.
[7:28] We'll come into the US in a second, but
[7:30] total US cuts were 43,281,
[7:34] the lowest since September of 2022. AI
[7:37] was cited in 120,000 of these cuts about
[7:40] 21%.
[7:42] So what you have is you have like a
[7:44] twotrack job market. Tech is bleeding
[7:48] and a lot of other jobs are fine. What's
[7:52] interesting when you prepare this
[7:53] research and you talk with the AI
[7:56] models, they're like they kind of say
[7:58] like, well, everyone else is fine. And I
[8:00] I disagree with that. I actually think a
[8:03] majority of the population is feeling
[8:06] financially pinched even if they feel
[8:09] like they have some decent job security.
[8:11] And you can see that in consumer
[8:13] sentiment reports. You can see that in
[8:16] the buyers, the sellers, the investors
[8:18] that we talk to, the small business
[8:20] owners that we talk to. People feel beat
[8:22] up. One of my business partners, I was
[8:25] talking to him last night and one of our
[8:27] other friends, which is also one of my
[8:28] business partners, he's like, "Oh, you
[8:31] heard uh we're like, "Oh, Mike just got
[8:33] another excavator." And I was like,
[8:35] "Does he need another excavator right
[8:37] now?" And my partner Tony is just a no,
[8:40] probably not. But he got it for like 50%
[8:43] off.
[8:44] >> Oh, wow.
[8:45] >> So, he's got a really big one and he's
[8:48] got a a skid steer, but you kind of need
[8:50] these mediumsiz ones. are like a 130 to
[8:53] like a 165 to do a lot of jobs and they
[8:56] can be moved around easily.
[8:57] >> I was going to say diesel
[9:00] uh vehicle owners are really hurting and
[9:03] all these uh heavy equipment are run off
[9:06] of diesel on diesel.
[9:07] >> So that's why people are really pinched
[9:10] because well they've got payments on
[9:11] these machines oftent times. Yes.
[9:13] >> Secondly, they're having less jobs
[9:16] probably. It's just slower in real
[9:18] estate. And then third, with diesel
[9:20] prices this high, I know that I I I went
[9:23] to Costco in Lynwood, Washington, right?
[9:26] Probably one of the busiest Costos, and
[9:29] the gas line was not busy. And I have
[9:32] never seen that at that Costco
[9:34] specifically.
[9:35] >> And I was thinking, I wonder if it's
[9:36] because not as many people are filling
[9:38] up. So, you know me as I'm reading, as
[9:41] I'm digging through everything, there is
[9:44] data right now that says the luxury
[9:47] consumer is consuming 1 to 2% more in
[9:51] gas. And the middle class and below is
[9:55] consuming like 2 to 5% less. In other
[9:59] words, gas is so expensive right now,
[10:02] people are actually pinching their gas.
[10:04] And what's funny was I when I read that,
[10:06] Benji, I have caught myself doing that.
[10:09] And here's what I mean. I just usually
[10:10] fill up on a regular basis, you know,
[10:13] when my schedule and it's like just
[10:15] every, you know, this, you know, Tuesday
[10:17] or whatever it is, I just fill up. I
[10:20] caught myself the other day. I was like,
[10:21] I'm going to drive her all the way to
[10:23] empty. It made no sense. I'm going to
[10:25] just drive it till the gas light comes
[10:26] all the way on because I actually didn't
[10:29] want to go to the pump and put my credit
[10:30] card in and see what the bill was.
[10:33] >> Yeah. So, and I I'm sure I'm not the
[10:35] only one.
[10:36] >> And you have to drive,
[10:37] >> right? Um, well, with that being said, I
[10:40] have a question to follow up this tech
[10:42] layoff stat. You said 544%,
[10:46] >> but does that mean in Seattle it'd be
[10:48] even more
[10:49] >> tech layoffs like percentage- wise since
[10:51] I think Seattle has done a little bit
[10:53] better?
[10:54] >> Okay.
[10:54] >> But we've had I mean quite a few here
[10:58] throughout Washington because the names
[11:00] are huge. You got Amazon had 2,198
[11:05] uh workers laid off uh in January. They
[11:08] had 147
[11:10] in Seattle, 626 in Belleview. That's on
[11:14] top of the 2,000 Seattle area job cuts
[11:17] that were back in October of 2025. You
[11:20] had Amazon again in Seattle, Belleview,
[11:22] and Sumar effective this October. You
[11:26] had almost 1,400 at Meta, which is about
[11:28] 20% of its workforce. 850 in two rounds
[11:32] at Oracle, 650 or 605 for Microsoft and
[11:35] Redmond, then roughly about 300 at Xbox,
[11:39] and then poor Bungie. Hey, any of my
[11:41] Halo players out there, my Bungie, my
[11:45] Bungie players, hit me up in the
[11:46] comments if you're a Halo fan. I Halo
[11:49] was like my first person shooter, the
[11:51] one I was in love with. But Bungie just
[11:54] had to lay off 292.
[11:56] uh Expediters 230, Expedia 162, Qualrix
[12:01] 117, Uber 93, Zillow 91, T-Mobile 77,
[12:05] Tik Tok 75, Salesforce 59, and Google
[12:08] 52. So this is a lot of big numbers. And
[12:11] we started out talking about the Seattle
[12:14] city itself
[12:16] has 18,65
[12:20] fewer jobs than it did in 2024.
[12:23] So yes, tech is being hurt and tech is
[12:26] being hurt somewhat disproportionately,
[12:28] but Seattle proper is being decimated.
[12:33] Why? H ask yourself why. The activities
[12:38] of Seattle, the current policies of the
[12:42] mayor, the lack of dealing with crime is
[12:47] preventing the businesses from growing,
[12:50] the people from moving there.
[12:53] things are massively changing. And so
[12:55] you have all these groups that are
[12:57] coming out that are really pushing back
[12:59] against that. The downtown uh Seattle
[13:02] Association of Businesses, the DSA, not
[13:04] to be confused with the Democrat
[13:06] Socialist of America, but they are still
[13:08] in Seattle, so the name, you know, it
[13:11] sounds it sounds similar.
[13:12] >> Too much of a coincidence.
[13:14] >> Yeah.
[13:14] >> More tech specific numbers. Seattle area
[13:17] tech companies announced more than
[13:18] 30,000 job cuts in 2025, mostly from
[13:22] Microsoft, Amazon Blue Origin. Amazon
[13:24] alone cut 30,000 corporate jobs since
[13:26] 2025, about 10% of its corporate
[13:29] workforce.
[13:30] That was the largest cut in the history
[13:33] of Amazon. In Washington, more than
[13:36] 11,000 tech workers lost their jobs
[13:38] between 2025 and 2026. Only the state of
[13:43] California beat us with more. Okay. So
[13:46] this is not
[13:49] this is that concerning trend. This is
[13:51] the thing when we talk about when
[13:53] ideology
[13:56] meets economic reality. We are chasing
[13:59] away the golden goose known as tech. one
[14:03] of our clients right now, he he sent me
[14:05] an email last last night and I replied
[14:08] to him this morning and he has a
[14:11] electrical or HVAC business anyway, but
[14:14] he also worked for a tech company uh
[14:17] here locally and the tech company had to
[14:20] choose between Virginia and then
[14:22] Redmond, Washington. And in the 2000s,
[14:27] they chose Redmond, Washington. And then
[14:29] all of a sudden, things started very
[14:31] much changing. And so they they chose to
[14:33] just completely leave Washington state,
[14:36] but they also just didn't leave
[14:38] Washington state. They left the whole
[14:39] country. So what? So they felt like
[14:44] Seattle was the place to grow their
[14:46] little tech business. They grew their
[14:48] little tech business and then they felt
[14:50] like it became hostile to their product,
[14:53] their business, and they felt like, you
[14:56] know what, we're just going to move it
[14:57] straight out of the country. And I was
[14:59] reading that, I mean, on my phone this
[15:00] morning and I was like, how many more
[15:03] businesses, you know, I realize this is
[15:05] an anecdote, but how many more
[15:08] businesses are feeling that way? Because
[15:10] Janicki, for example, they're a large
[15:13] aerospace manufacturer. They're building
[15:16] their next facility out of state.
[15:23] King County
[15:25] had layoff notices of 9,027
[15:29] dang
[15:30] >> workers. Oh, did I tell you this fun
[15:32] little story? I I don't know if that's
[15:34] fun or not. It's related to
[15:36] >> King County government.
[15:38] >> No. Go.
[15:39] >> So, I have an office in downtown
[15:41] Seattle. Yeah.
[15:41] >> It's a great time to get office space,
[15:43] by the way. Hit me up in the DMs if you
[15:45] you need some good office space. I'm
[15:47] like right in the heart of downtown.
[15:48] It's the cheapest I've I don't even know
[15:50] if I've told you how much I pay. It's
[15:51] like it's a great price and it it it's
[15:55] take your pick anywhere in downtown.
[15:56] Okay. But I'm in downtown quite often
[15:59] for business. I do station with the
[16:01] family sometimes and I'm literally just
[16:03] looking out the window and I'm always
[16:05] dumbfounded how many empty buildings
[16:08] there are. Not just empty office floors,
[16:10] but literally the whole building is
[16:12] empty. And this isn't new, but it's one
[16:15] thing to hear about on the news and see
[16:18] the stats, but it's another thing to
[16:19] like visually see a floor. And I there's
[16:22] one of my favorite hotels in downtown we
[16:24] always stay at. And so there's this one
[16:26] floor and this one building that's
[16:28] always empty. And we're talking like
[16:29] five years now. That means that owner of
[16:32] that office space of that building
[16:36] >> doesn't get any revenue. But that's not
[16:38] uncommon. It's almost anywhere in the
[16:40] city. I've only seen one building
[16:43] completely full from top to bottom. Can
[16:46] you guess who owns that building?
[16:49] >> Amazon.
[16:50] >> King County.
[16:51] >> Oh,
[16:53] >> it's a government building.
[16:54] >> Oh, no.
[16:55] >> It's a government building because
[16:57] they're usually the last to lay off.
[17:00] >> Yeah.
[17:00] >> So, when you say that King County is
[17:03] laying off people at the tune of 9,000
[17:05] workers,
[17:06] >> well, this was the King County area, not
[17:08] the city of King County.
[17:09] >> But it doesn't matter. The point is as a
[17:12] whole, right? But I mean, think about
[17:14] that. How sad is it?
[17:16] >> I mean, I think that there shouldn't be
[17:18] layoffs in either places, but you would
[17:20] want it to kind of be equal.
[17:22] >> Yeah.
[17:22] >> But the government usually is the
[17:25] slowest to kind of lay people off.
[17:28] >> The government never trims the fat.
[17:29] Yeah. Especially here in Washington
[17:31] state. We know that. Our listeners, our
[17:33] subscribers know that Washington state
[17:36] is overspending at the state level, the
[17:39] local level, the county level, and that
[17:42] we are not practicing austerity and
[17:44] trimming the fat in any way possible,
[17:46] and it needs to be done.
[17:48] >> Isn't that crazy? In 5 years,
[17:50] >> yes,
[17:50] >> the only time I've seen an office
[17:52] building full from top to bottom was a
[17:56] government building. And that was I and
[17:58] you know I was like sitting there on the
[18:00] balcony looking at this building and in
[18:02] my mind I'm going huh I guess things are
[18:05] coming back for some people right
[18:07] >> and then I was like but wait and I did a
[18:10] Google search and I saw it was a King
[18:11] County building. I was like oh dang.
[18:13] >> Yeah
[18:14] >> that's crazy. Anyways just a of course
[18:16] anecdotal but what I'm saying is when
[18:20] King County starts laying off isn't that
[18:22] a big red flag?
[18:23] >> Absolutely. is Washington's
[18:25] unemployment, we've talked about this
[18:27] before, is at 4.9% in August. We are
[18:31] basically tied for the fifth highest
[18:33] unemployment in the state. And a really
[18:39] interesting stat, this one blew my mind.
[18:41] It's called long-term unemployed.
[18:43] Long-term unemployed has reached 28.3%,
[18:49] up from 19.8.
[18:52] Long-term unemployed, Benji, is when
[18:55] someone lost their job and be after they
[19:00] lost their job, they weren't able to get
[19:02] reemployed quickly. So, not only is the
[19:06] market are we losing some jobs, it's not
[19:09] just tech, but tech is one of the
[19:11] biggest sectors, it's also some of the
[19:13] most high-paying jobs, but then it's
[19:15] taking longer for that person to get
[19:19] rehired. So, as people look around and
[19:22] their friend got laid off and they have
[19:24] a friend who is taking them longer to
[19:26] get rehired in regards to the real
[19:28] estate market, they are pausing more and
[19:32] doing less.
[19:34] Layoffs are just part of this story. And
[19:37] I want to go into the five pipes or the
[19:41] five methods or these pillars
[19:44] on how because you started to give us
[19:46] one of them on how these layoffs then
[19:49] relate to home prices because it's not
[19:52] just layoffs.
[19:55] Pipe number one, nobody is moving to
[19:59] Washington state.
[20:02] Let me explain what I mean here. When
[20:04] you go look at census data specifically,
[20:07] we are losing taxpayers that pay higher
[20:11] taxes and the people that we are gaining
[20:14] are lowerpaying taxpayers and we're
[20:17] generally losing them to other states
[20:19] and most of the reason for our current
[20:21] population growth is immigration. But
[20:26] it's outside immigration coming into the
[20:29] United States. Well, the problem with
[20:31] that is what's happened with immigration
[20:33] in the Trump administration
[20:35] >> cut off completely.
[20:36] >> It's just freaking shut down. And then
[20:40] the uh the H1B visas. So that's held by
[20:45] a lot of tech workers. They're not being
[20:48] renewed at the same level. They're not
[20:49] being given out at the same level. Today
[20:52] I saw a post uh
[20:55] uh Microsoft's H1B visa got revoked.
[20:59] like they can't give them out. This is
[21:01] Microsoft
[21:02] >> and you know there's a lot of Yeah.
[21:04] >> H1B visa yes employees there just today
[21:08] it was announced.
[21:09] >> I I have not seen that article but it
[21:11] doesn't surprise me.
[21:12] >> There are two cities that really pop
[21:14] into my head right now.
[21:16] >> We were just looking at both and I was
[21:20] just looking at Samish. And in both of
[21:23] those areas, you're seeing larger price
[21:26] drops and what's called the percent of
[21:29] original list price. So in other words,
[21:31] if something was priced at it started at
[21:33] 100 grand and then it sold for 93,700,
[21:39] that's the percent of original list
[21:40] price, 93.7.
[21:42] And that's the exact number that's
[21:45] happening in Seamish right now. you're
[21:48] in September
[21:50] 2026,
[21:51] the average buyer got almost 7% off the
[21:54] price and that doesn't even include
[21:55] concessions and that's over a million
[21:58] bucks. Why? It's that move up buyer.
[22:02] Okay, that's pipe number four. That move
[22:04] up buyer is hitting pause. Pipe number
[22:07] one, nobody's moving here. We do because
[22:11] we make a lot of content. We have social
[22:14] media. We have a large web presence. We
[22:17] do a lot of SEO, AEO, GEO. We run a lot
[22:21] of ads. So, generally speaking, we have
[22:24] relocation clients coming in. And we
[22:27] have those relocation clients that hit
[22:29] us in fourth quarter who are planning
[22:32] for the next year. Ladies and gentlemen,
[22:36] I got whole this many relocation
[22:40] clients. What
[22:41] >> coming in right now?
[22:42] >> Zero.
[22:42] >> Zero. And usually
[22:44] >> I thought you were going to say like I
[22:45] got like 20 of them.
[22:46] >> No.
[22:47] >> Whoa.
[22:47] >> Usually we have anywhere between five to
[22:50] 10 during this time of the year that
[22:52] starts talking to us about they're
[22:54] coming in to our area for next year. I
[22:59] have zero. Also, and I've mentioned this
[23:01] before,
[23:02] so two of the listings will go on next
[23:05] week, but I have seven listings where
[23:08] every single one of these sellers is
[23:12] moving out of the state. And we've never
[23:14] had seven listings where the person is
[23:16] moving out of the state. And this is 500
[23:19] grand to 4 million. So, nobody's moving
[23:23] here. Two, people are not switching jobs
[23:27] as much. Okay, that's that long-term
[23:29] unemployed. When they're not switching
[23:31] jobs and having that shuffle, that
[23:33] shuffle causes home prices. Number
[23:36] three, RSU
[23:39] down payments are now not happening as
[23:42] much.
[23:42] >> What's RSU?
[23:43] >> RSU is your uh holy cow, I can't
[23:48] remember what the U stands for. It's the
[23:50] stock the company gives you that you
[23:52] hold on to until you've been there for a
[23:54] moment in time and then it vests. And
[23:56] then those people sell their stock or
[23:58] they take a line of credit against it in
[24:00] tech in order to go buy a home. When
[24:03] RSUs feel uh um uh shaky,
[24:09] people aren't moving that tech money
[24:11] around. And that's showing up. It's
[24:13] showing up in Belleview. It's showing up
[24:15] in Seamish. Not all of Bellev, but I
[24:17] think it was the 98004
[24:20] if I remember correctly. I was looking
[24:22] at those numbers. I was like, "Oh my
[24:24] goodness, that area is starting to be
[24:26] down."
[24:28] So,
[24:30] people aren't moving here. We're not
[24:31] switching as much jobs. RSU, the move up
[24:34] buyer has hit pause.
[24:35] >> Sorry. Restricted stock unit.
[24:37] >> Restricted stock units. You have to be
[24:39] with the tech company for a period of
[24:41] time in order for them to vest. And it's
[24:45] a form of compensation to attract talent
[24:48] and to have people as a retention
[24:51] mechanism stay inside of the company.
[24:54] Inventory is building, but sellers
[24:57] aren't forced to sell.
[25:00] We don't have the forced sellers of the
[25:02] great financial crisis. And I'm going to
[25:04] get into that here in just a second.
[25:08] But this pipe, because sellers aren't
[25:10] forced to sell, decides whether the
[25:13] market is the slow grind, flat or down,
[25:17] or it becomes the crash. In the great
[25:21] financial crisis, sellers were forced to
[25:24] sell.
[25:25] >> They were forced to sell due to lack of
[25:27] equity, due to massive job loss, due to
[25:30] bankruptcy, death, divorce. Now, we
[25:32] still have things like that. So, that's,
[25:34] you know, and the foreclosure rate was
[25:36] massive. And we're going to get into
[25:38] comparison of the foreclosure rates here
[25:40] in a second. What we have next, though,
[25:43] or what we should be talking about is
[25:44] there's a type of property that's just
[25:46] getting crushed right now. And with all
[25:51] things,
[25:52] these is an opportunity.
[25:56] Even when things aren't perfect like
[25:57] this, it's an opportunity. We're going
[25:59] to get into the opportunities, but if
[26:01] you're thinking about what could these
[26:03] opportunities be, hit us up at rsg.com.
[26:06] Drop your questions or comments into the
[26:10] uh chat below, and we're happy to answer
[26:13] them and point you in the right
[26:14] direction based on the data.
[26:17] >> All right, so I think we should get into
[26:19] some stats on what's happening in the
[26:21] Seattle and King County area. Um, I see
[26:24] a whole bunch of numbers here. What is
[26:27] happening right now in the market?
[26:29] >> The market's having, you know, a freeze.
[26:32] And this freeze is a pause because
[26:36] demand is less.
[26:41] New listings in King County, September
[26:44] versus September, up 10.4%. Pending
[26:47] sales down almost 13. Closed sales down
[26:50] almost 17.
[26:52] Homes for sale up 28%. Months of supply
[26:55] up 36%. Median sales price month down
[27:00] 2.2%. That's 2.2% a crash.
[27:03] >> No.
[27:04] >> No. Come on. But it's still down. Okay.
[27:08] Percent of original list price down just
[27:12] slightly. What this means? Very simple.
[27:16] More homes are coming on the market.
[27:18] Buyers have more choices. Sellers must
[27:21] be priced correctly and not have wish
[27:25] pricing.
[27:26] Investors should be drooling and
[27:29] considering what they're going to go
[27:31] hunting for in fourth quarter. And the
[27:34] buyer should be saying when is the right
[27:37] time for me.
[27:40] And the sellers have to decide,
[27:43] do I want to sell or do I need to sell?
[27:47] This isn't a want to sell market. King
[27:50] County condos are doing even worse. Now,
[27:52] I'm talking about King County because
[27:53] it's our largest county. What do you
[27:55] think's happening with Snomish County
[27:57] and Pierce County and all the other
[27:58] ones? They're all just mirroring King
[28:00] County, very similar. Okay. If you want
[28:03] exact data about your neighborhood, your
[28:06] zip code, your home, hit us up at
[28:09] rsu.com or drop it right into the chat
[28:11] and we'll send you a link to that data.
[28:14] But we're happy to do this. When I look
[28:17] at condos, oh, pendings are down 23%,
[28:21] closed sales down 31%.
[28:23] Months, six and a half months of supply.
[28:27] That's that's not good.
[28:30] >> Strong buyers market. Strong buyers
[28:33] market.
[28:33] >> Yeah, you should define this because if
[28:36] you're a real estate agent, you know
[28:37] that when there's a lot of uh what do
[28:41] you call it? Inventory, right?
[28:43] That is a good thing for buyers because
[28:45] you have a lot of options. But talk
[28:46] about days on market and in this case
[28:49] months on market.
[28:50] >> So days on market is up just slightly.
[28:54] Days on market actually isn't that bad
[28:56] >> but the total supply. So generally
[28:59] speaking like if we go back to like
[29:02] right after COVID
[29:04] across the United States we're selling
[29:06] over 6 million homes. The market's on
[29:08] fire. Everything's being an over bid.
[29:11] That's when interest rates are super low
[29:13] >> and interest rates were like 3%. At that
[29:16] time we had between one to two months
[29:18] worth of inventory aka a hardcore
[29:22] sellers market and the sellers were
[29:24] getting everything and the buyers were
[29:25] complaining I have no control. Ladies
[29:27] and gentlemen, the buyer has control.
[29:30] It's buyer season. You're back baby.
[29:33] It's time to have some fun. when you hit
[29:35] about 4 months worth of inventory
[29:38] because we're used to the market moving
[29:39] so fast it starts shifting into the
[29:41] buyer market. So clearly King County,
[29:44] especially in condos, especially in
[29:46] certain product types, especially in
[29:48] certain cities or areas, is clearly a
[29:51] buyer market. Now, of course, if you
[29:54] want the one of one, ain't going to
[29:56] happen. If you want the waterfront home
[29:58] or the views galore, you know, that
[30:00] one's still going good. But you know,
[30:03] remember when we were talking about
[30:04] Patrick Bet David, make disrespectful
[30:06] offers. Is there a time when you should
[30:08] be making some disrespectful offers
[30:10] again? Yeah, it's Q4 of 2026. But we got
[30:13] to be smart about this. Here's what I
[30:15] see the novice do. They go to the brand
[30:17] new one day on the market and they're
[30:19] like, "Hey, will you take 10% off your
[30:21] price?" No one in their right freaking
[30:24] mind is going to take 10% off the price
[30:26] on day one. We got to go to the one
[30:28] that's been on the market a few months.
[30:30] We got to go off the market. Okay, we
[30:32] got to go hunting where other people
[30:34] aren't hunting in order to find those
[30:36] deals. And you guys know how to hit us
[30:37] up if you want to find those deals.
[30:40] Let's look at Belleview and Kirkland
[30:42] east side. So that's Belle, Redmond,
[30:44] Kirkland. The median 1.6 in in price,
[30:48] median sales price down about 3.1.
[30:51] Belleview, west of I405,
[30:54] very expensive, almost 3.5 million, down
[30:58] 14.7%.
[31:02] That is a large double-digit drop.
[31:05] >> Are you would you call that almost
[31:06] crashing in a way home price
[31:10] >> that that is a crash, but you can't
[31:11] really call a crash when it's on the
[31:13] luxury end because the luxury buyer and
[31:16] seller can absorb it. It doesn't become
[31:19] systemic like the great financial crisis
[31:21] because this is just the top end losing
[31:24] a little bit of money. The problem is
[31:26] when the median and below starts to fall
[31:28] apart, that's when you run into the
[31:30] great financial crisis.
[31:31] >> Can I ask a question?
[31:32] >> Yes, hit me.
[31:33] >> All right. So, tell me what is going on
[31:36] with Seattle because we skipped that
[31:38] right there. Okay. And you said you
[31:41] promise what type of property is getting
[31:44] crushed in Seattle.
[31:45] >> Oh, yeah.
[31:46] >> So, tell me what's happening in the
[31:48] Seattle area in terms of the market as
[31:50] well as, you know, what properties we
[31:52] should be looking out for. So, if we
[31:53] just zoom into Seattle, 3,658,
[31:57] homes for sale up 16%.
[32:00] Pendings's down 13%. Median sales price
[32:03] down about 1.2.
[32:06] Showings per listing, aka the number of
[32:08] people looking down about 22%. Here's
[32:10] what I'm seeing personally. I'm seeing
[32:13] agents actively disengage.
[32:16] I talked to Arman in the office. I
[32:18] bumped into him in the lobby and him and
[32:19] I were having a discussion. And one of
[32:21] the things I love to say to other agents
[32:23] is like, "What are you buying right now?
[32:25] What are you doing? What listing did you
[32:26] take this week?" It's it's that's my
[32:28] method of encouragement. And so I asked
[32:30] him how his business was. He goes, "Man,
[32:31] I'm working really hard, but it's good."
[32:33] And I said, "Well, what are you what are
[32:35] you seeing?" He goes,
[32:38] and he he literally did that. He dropped
[32:39] his paper. He dropped his pen. He looks
[32:41] at me and he goes, "I cannot find other
[32:44] agents." I go, "What do you mean?" He
[32:47] goes, "My showings on my listings, I
[32:49] can't get people to call me back. The
[32:51] buyer agents, the listings I call on, I
[32:54] can't get the listing agents to call
[32:55] them back." He goes, "It's fourth
[32:57] quarter and they're actively
[32:58] disengaged." And I've been telling this
[32:59] to my team. I've been telling this to
[33:02] the people who have asked me for
[33:03] guidance. Fourth quarter of 2026,
[33:07] we personally are going to make it rain
[33:09] just like we did in 2023. 2023 was the
[33:13] best fourth quarter I have had in the
[33:16] last eight years because everyone was
[33:18] actively disengaged. I feel the brokers
[33:20] are actively disengaged again. And so
[33:23] what are we going to do? We're actually
[33:25] just going to work a little bit more and
[33:26] have a little more fun and have fun with
[33:27] our buyers, our sellers, our investors
[33:29] and just slay it because you're seeing
[33:31] this active disengagement. And you asked
[33:34] the perfect question leading up to one
[33:36] of the promises that we have to deliver
[33:38] on. Ladies and gentlemen, what product
[33:40] type do you think is getting decimated
[33:42] here in the Seattle metro? Not just
[33:44] Seattle, I'm talking the whole metroun.
[33:50] New construction. New construction is
[33:53] getting hit absolutely the worst.
[33:57] Seattle new construction pendings are
[33:58] down 38%. Well, inventory is up 46%.
[34:02] I grabbed the specific new construction
[34:04] data out of the NWMLS for King and
[34:06] Snowomish just so I would have this.
[34:08] King County new construction listings
[34:10] total up 8.4. Snowomish County down
[34:13] slightly. Homes for sale though, this is
[34:15] where it just blows my mind. 21% more
[34:19] homes for sale in King County year to
[34:23] date and 27%
[34:26] more in Snowomish County. One of the
[34:29] builders and developers I talked to
[34:31] yesterday told me, "I am not putting in
[34:35] any more permits because my product's
[34:37] not selling." I was called this week.
[34:39] See, I get called to solve problems. I'm
[34:42] the real estate solutions group. So, I
[34:45] got called by a gentleman who owns a a a
[34:48] plat. There are multiple homes available
[34:51] in this plat. Two of them have sold and
[34:54] the rest are unsold. And he said, "What
[34:56] do I do?" I said, "You do." I was like I
[35:00] was like I was like, "I'm going to tell
[35:01] you what you want to what you have to
[35:04] do, but it may not be what you want to
[35:06] hear, and I'm going to tell you the
[35:07] truth." He goes, "That's why I I called
[35:09] you. I was told by another friend,
[35:11] you'll just be blunt." And I was like,
[35:13] "Yes, sir. I'll tell you exactly where
[35:16] you're at and what you need to do. Let
[35:17] me go do the research." I open it up for
[35:20] two seconds. I go,
[35:22] "Oh,
[35:24] man.
[35:27] month supply 4.9 in King County and uh
[35:32] four in Snowomish County but the median
[35:35] sales price in new construction down 6.6
[35:39] Snomish County double digit down 11%.
[35:43] Now, this is just single family. This
[35:45] does not include town home. This does
[35:47] not include condos. Town homes and
[35:50] condos are worse.
[35:52] So, if someone says, "I want to get the
[35:56] best deal possible." I will tell you
[35:58] some of the best deal possible right now
[36:00] is in new construction because of the
[36:02] incentives that they are providing, the
[36:04] buy down of the interest rates, the
[36:06] goodies they are providing, the home
[36:08] warranties they are providing because
[36:10] they're sitting on this inventory. Also,
[36:12] mark my words. I've said this a couple
[36:15] times that we're somewhere near peak
[36:20] fear right now. I feel it. This feels
[36:23] similar
[36:25] to where we were in the great financial
[36:27] crisis. Could I be wrong? Absolutely.
[36:29] Could this go on for another year?
[36:31] Absolutely.
[36:33] But we're somewhere near the the peak
[36:36] fear and the potential bottom is my my
[36:39] thought. And the reason I bring that up
[36:42] specifically
[36:43] is these builders are not submitting
[36:47] permits. And because they are not
[36:49] submitting permits and they are not
[36:51] submitting development applications,
[36:53] even if population stays flat, but
[36:56] population is slightly growing in
[36:58] Washington state, but if population even
[37:00] stayed flat, that lack of permits will
[37:03] force prices up in the future due to the
[37:07] lack of inventory. Period. in a
[37:09] discussion. We lose homes to fire, to
[37:12] falling trees, to floods, to anything
[37:16] that you can think of. There's always a
[37:18] percentage of the housing stock that
[37:19] you're losing. Housing stock has to be
[37:22] replaced. We are behind on housing and
[37:25] now permits are massively down. That
[37:27] will cause us to turn the corner.
[37:29] Question, brother man.
[37:30] >> Well, then the four sellers, would that
[37:33] be the builders and the developers?
[37:36] >> That's a very good point. The four
[37:38] sellers, the closest we can get to it is
[37:40] the builders and the developers. Why?
[37:42] They don't have one mortgage. They have
[37:44] 20, 30, 100 mortgages. However, you're
[37:49] not seeing them reduce their price as
[37:51] much as you would expect because when
[37:54] you have 10 or 20 homes, you can't just
[37:56] reduce it. You've got to do creative
[37:59] financing. That's why they're giving
[38:00] away the super low interest rates. But
[38:03] still a great question like who is the
[38:05] force seller? Where is the force seller
[38:07] going to come from? And there was a
[38:09] headline that just popped up recently.
[38:11] It said, "Washington state foreclosures
[38:13] are up 41%.
[38:15] Lions and tigers and bears. Oh my, it's
[38:18] the great financial crisis." So I go
[38:20] through and read the comments and
[38:21] everyone's like, "It's 2008 times two.
[38:25] We're going to the gold standard. Nobody
[38:27] wants the dollar." Yeah. And so they're
[38:30] they're
[38:32] the doomerism believes that everything
[38:35] is just going to break. So let's go
[38:36] through real numbers. 2,482
[38:40] Washington properties got a foreclosure
[38:42] filing in the first half of 2026.
[38:46] That is one in every
[38:49] 1,332
[38:51] homes. About
[38:54] 8% of Washington. And Washington ranks
[38:57] 40th out of 50 states for foreclosures.
[39:00] So, we're up 41%.
[39:02] Don't let the data scare you. So, this
[39:04] is why we talk about this. Go look,
[39:07] figure out the next few layers of the
[39:09] data. Figure out how it ties together
[39:12] and then just call us. Have us explain
[39:14] it. When you see these comments, you see
[39:16] these headlines. Let us know how does it
[39:19] relate to the great financial crisis.
[39:23] In the great financial crisis
[39:24] nationally,
[39:26] we hit uh 2.23%
[39:30] in 2012. In other words, one in 45 homes
[39:35] was in foreclosure. Today, it's 16
[39:39] nationally. One in every 632.
[39:43] Okay. Uh sorry, that's got to what is
[39:47] that? 12x 15x where it is for us to
[39:51] catch up with the GFC.
[39:53] US properties with a foreclosure filing
[39:56] 2 million
[39:58] 870,000 in 2010.
[40:02] Nationally 227,548
[40:06] from January to June of this year, the
[40:09] first six months of this year.
[40:11] Washington State 1 in 432 homes in a
[40:15] single month.
[40:17] uh or excuse me 1 in 413 during the
[40:21] great financial crisis. Today it's 1 in
[40:25] 1,332.
[40:27] In the great financial crisis we were
[40:29] the 14th worst worst state. Today we are
[40:34] the 40th. So
[40:39] in one month in 2010, Washington put
[40:42] Washington put three times as many
[40:45] foreclosures
[40:47] as its share of homes and it did the
[40:49] entire of this year in one month. This
[40:52] does not compare in any way to the great
[40:54] financial crisis.
[40:56] Why did that happen?
[40:59] Why it's different?
[41:01] We were driven by the risky loans, the
[41:04] ninja loans, the no income, the the the
[41:06] liar loans.
[41:08] You didn't have to have good credit. We
[41:11] were joking the other day in a in a
[41:12] sales meeting. Someone said, "Hey, what
[41:15] was it like in the early 2000s?" I was
[41:18] like, "Did you file bankruptcy?" And the
[41:20] person's like, "Yeah." I was like, "We
[41:21] got you a house." I was like, "Just got
[41:23] a divorce. We got you a house." In the
[41:25] middle of getting into a divorce, got
[41:26] you a house. No job. Get you a house. in
[41:28] the middle of the financial crisis. So
[41:32] this is
[41:32] >> No, no, no. This is right before the
[41:33] financial crisis. Got it. This was the
[41:35] shenanigans that led to the final
[41:38] >> 2007.
[41:38] >> This is So I got in in 2003. My
[41:42] understanding this started basically
[41:44] like 2000 to 200, you know, six and
[41:46] seven is where these shenanigans happen.
[41:48] But they were just shenanigans. No one
[41:51] right out of bankruptcy should have been
[41:53] able to buy a home. No one should have
[41:55] been able to get a negative amortization
[41:58] loan. That means you make a lower
[42:00] payment and the principal balance grows.
[42:03] What? That's who can't do math? Who Who
[42:07] would have thought that's going to be a
[42:09] an okay thing in the future?
[42:13] Another way to look at this, about half
[42:16] of US mortgages carry a rate below four.
[42:20] Nearly 80% are below 6%. on uh I didn't
[42:24] throw it in here though uh but the stat
[42:27] was something like this something like
[42:30] during the great financial crisis the
[42:32] average loan to value was like
[42:36] 82%.
[42:38] And now the average loan to value is in
[42:41] the 40s.
[42:43] So the force seller happened because
[42:46] there was no equity because everyone
[42:48] used their home like an ATM. So when
[42:51] prices dropped a little bit, all of a
[42:53] sudden people were underwater when they
[42:54] had to sell, most homes would have to
[42:57] drop in half and the seller could still
[43:00] break even selling it with average sales
[43:03] cost. It's pretty wild. We know that
[43:06] there's some crazy headlines. Obviously,
[43:08] there's some more foreclosures, but not
[43:10] nearly like 2008.
[43:13] We know that tech jobs are leaving, but
[43:15] the question is this. How many people
[43:18] have to get laid off? And how many jobs
[43:21] do we have to lose before home prices
[43:25] actually go down considering that we
[43:27] just have lack of inventory as well?
[43:29] Which is like there's just not enough
[43:31] homes for the people that exist in this
[43:34] state and in this country.
[43:36] >> Yeah. How many tech jobs would we have
[43:39] to lose for prices to fall? There's an
[43:42] honest answer here. There's no magic
[43:45] count. Economists have measured this
[43:47] multiple ways and it kind of goes into
[43:49] that peak fear idea that we were talking
[43:51] about. The local job shock
[43:55] does cause home prices to change, but
[43:58] it's smaller than what people think
[43:59] because the doomer narrative goes on
[44:03] much deeper because it's so emotional
[44:05] and visceral. Local job shocks. There
[44:07] was a study by Blanchard and Cans
[44:10] found that negative local employment
[44:12] shocks bring home prices down a whopping
[44:16] 2% at the bottom. So in other words, if
[44:19] they're being pulled down because of
[44:20] something else, it'll bring it down
[44:21] about another 2%.
[44:24] And it takes about four to five years to
[44:26] arrive at that bottom. Ladies and
[44:29] gentlemen, when did we peak in home
[44:30] prices here in the Seattle metro? It was
[44:33] 2022.
[44:35] And since then prices have basically
[44:36] been flat, slightly down, slightly up.
[44:38] But that was our peak and then we pulled
[44:40] back. Why? Because of that massive rise
[44:43] in interest rates. And I just told you
[44:46] these researchers say it takes about
[44:48] four to five years to find the bottom.
[44:50] 22 + 5 is 2027.
[44:54] Oh, when did we find the the bottom the
[44:57] last time? We peaked in 2007. Add five
[45:01] years to it. Oh, guess when the bottom
[45:03] was 2012.
[45:05] So, is history repeating itself? It
[45:07] feels like it to me. Time will tell and
[45:10] the data will tell and we'll keep you
[45:12] informed. That's why you subscribe.
[45:16] Okay. Tech Wealth. San Francisco Fed. I
[45:20] thought this one was very interesting.
[45:22] found a 10% move in local stocks
[45:26] caused home prices to move up one to two
[45:29] percent over the next two years. So in
[45:32] other words, as tech workers stock
[45:35] compensation, those RSUs or their stock
[45:38] portfolio grows, that causes home prices
[45:41] to rise because people feel rich. They
[45:45] feel like they have more money and they
[45:46] of course they can borrow against it for
[45:48] their down payment.
[45:50] There was another study, and I'm not
[45:51] even going to try to pronounce this
[45:53] person's last name,
[45:55] that prices fall harder after bad shocks
[46:00] than they rise after good ones. And so
[46:03] you look at this and you go, wait a
[46:05] second, this is singledigits
[46:07] falling over a, you know, years.
[46:12] And that's what layoffs do alone. So
[46:16] well, what happened here in Seattle?
[46:19] What happened to us? We had the double
[46:22] whammy. See, the Federal Reserve
[46:24] massively hiked rates in 2022.
[46:28] So, you had rates go from three to
[46:31] almost eight. Then you did have those
[46:35] tech layoffs. So, it's pulling us down a
[46:38] little bit worse.
[46:42] What? And I'm going to do a live about
[46:44] this one. According to the Red Fin Data
[46:47] Center, we just snuck into number one as
[46:51] the bottom metro in the United States
[46:55] for trending in a downward direction.
[46:57] When I did the live on Tuesday, we were
[47:01] number two and San Antonio was number
[47:03] one. And I was just going to show it to
[47:05] someone. I pulled it up yesterday
[47:07] afternoon because the data had been
[47:08] updated. I was like, "Oh, never mind.
[47:11] We're no longer in second place. We just
[47:13] beat San Antonio because we're receiving
[47:16] the double whammy of the layoffs, of the
[47:18] rate shocks,
[47:20] but it's a slow grind and the headlines
[47:25] make this seem like it's a bigger issue.
[47:28] So really what's happening is you've got
[47:29] a lot of FUD, fear, uncertainty, and
[47:31] doubt that's sitting in the market
[47:32] that's causing people to be paralyzed
[47:34] and wait. And yet we have people getting
[47:39] great deals of two young gentlemen who
[47:42] sell real estate. One of them has been
[47:45] selling real estate for years. He bought
[47:46] a his first home this year. He's been
[47:49] selling real estate for 5 years. Why
[47:52] would he buy his first home if he
[47:53] thought the market was going to
[47:55] collapse? He doesn't. He believes that
[47:58] the market like this is going to be one
[48:00] of those peak times to buy where he can
[48:03] get the best opportunity. and he bought,
[48:06] you know, it needs a little elbow
[48:07] grease, needs a little love. So, he's
[48:10] going to create some equity fixing that
[48:12] property uh that property up.
[48:15] We talked about rates peaking. And in
[48:18] that rate peaking, there's a couple
[48:20] things I want to point out to you
[48:21] because it really fundamentally changed
[48:23] the math.
[48:25] If the King County median sales price is
[48:27] 950 with 20% down, you get a $760,000
[48:30] loan. Rates dramatically shot up. I mean
[48:34] rates literally
[48:36] are basically seven and a half right now
[48:39] and one year ago they were 6.34.
[48:43] So that's how much it's pinching us. So
[48:45] a year ago for that 760,000 principal
[48:48] and interest was going to cost you about
[48:49] $4,700 a month. Two weeks ago before
[48:52] rates shot up again we were at 7% that
[48:55] was just over 5,000 5,72.
[48:59] Today at 7.49 49. That's $5,39
[49:04] a month.
[49:06] That's almost $500
[49:09] more than just a year ago. And in one
[49:11] week, that 25 basis point jump or the
[49:15] 0.25 alone cost the average buyer about
[49:18] $128
[49:19] a month. So housing didn't get
[49:22] fundamentally more expensive.
[49:25] The rates did. The purchasing power got
[49:27] massively expensive. So, it started
[49:30] hurting both sides.
[49:34] As I was reading and finally preparing
[49:36] for this, I saw that realtor.com
[49:40] was talking about the best time to buy.
[49:44] I thought this was a really super
[49:45] interesting article. And so, my actually
[49:48] my first thought was like that's BS
[49:51] because realtor.com basically said
[49:53] nationally September 27th to October 3rd
[49:56] is the best time to buy. And what do you
[49:59] think they said here about the Seattle
[50:00] Metro?
[50:02] >> Probably the best time to buy.
[50:04] >> The best time to buy is literally coming
[50:05] in the next two weeks.
[50:08] >> Yeah. So they said that it is October
[50:11] 18th through the 24th.
[50:13] >> But what about rates?
[50:15] >> They rates were not the factor in this
[50:19] one. So when they went in, they rated or
[50:22] weighted, excuse me, their factors. They
[50:26] talked about the amount of inventory on
[50:28] the market, the amount of seller
[50:29] concessions people were getting, the
[50:31] price reductions that they were getting,
[50:32] and they believe this kind of beginning
[50:34] of fourth quarter is the most optimal
[50:37] time because there's still a lot of
[50:39] inventory,
[50:40] and yet people are getting good prices
[50:42] off. Now, of course, the further we go
[50:44] into the winter, the more price
[50:47] reductions and price off people get, but
[50:51] there's less inventory because people
[50:53] cancel it. My first initial reaction was
[50:57] BS. So I literally ripped open the
[50:59] article, dropped it into chat GPT,
[51:03] turned Astra on YOLO mode, and I said,
[51:05] "Rip all the data out. Tell me all the
[51:07] data that you need out of the MLS, and
[51:09] I'll feed it back into you. Let's
[51:10] confirm this."
[51:12] Burned a bajillion tokens. And Astro
[51:16] goes, I 100% agree with their findings
[51:18] based on the data. I was like, "What?"
[51:21] So, I reconfirmed their findings, not
[51:25] based on rates, but based on the other
[51:27] factors inside the market, the Seattle
[51:30] metro, starting here in just a little
[51:32] bit, is one of the best times to buy.
[51:34] Now, I will tell you, our investors,
[51:37] our first-time home buyers are people
[51:39] that have to do things for business and
[51:41] for tax reasons.
[51:44] Fourth quarter is always the best for
[51:46] them. So, I want to leave you with just
[51:47] a couple quick playbooks with a couple
[51:50] ideas on what you should be doing here
[51:52] in relation to real estate. I'm going to
[51:54] start with the business owner. The
[51:57] business owner who has a tax problem and
[52:00] they can use real estate to reduce their
[52:02] tax burden. That's something that we
[52:04] should be looking at for the end of the
[52:06] year. And generally speaking, for those
[52:07] people, we're buying commercial real
[52:09] estate. We're buying gas stations,
[52:12] multif family. We're buying them office
[52:14] buildings, warehouses, things like that
[52:16] that they're going to use inside of
[52:18] their business. Phenomenal tax strategy.
[52:21] We can talk about that more. I'm not a
[52:24] tax guy. I just spend a lot of money on
[52:27] taxes and tax attorneys, so I know what
[52:29] we're doing. We get involved with them.
[52:32] For our first-time home buyers,
[52:37] this winter season will be that time
[52:39] that you can get that rate buy down that
[52:41] you need to qualify, that you can ask
[52:44] for the closing cost, that you can get
[52:46] the timelines for it to happen, that you
[52:51] can
[52:53] uh we
[52:55] had a buyer recently break their lease.
[52:59] the seller paid to break the buyer's
[53:02] lease of the home they bought.
[53:06] They just wrote it into the contract.
[53:08] You can ask for anything. Now, it
[53:10] doesn't mean you're going to get it. And
[53:11] that seller of course had to be
[53:13] motivated.
[53:15] Also, if you're thinking, "Hey, my goal
[53:17] is to do this in 2027." I would start
[53:20] looking today
[53:23] for my move up buyer or my buyer that's
[53:25] moving to another area. We actually have
[53:27] to analyze the data with you to decide
[53:30] if now is the right time because spring
[53:32] might be better. It's going to depend on
[53:34] the home that we're selling and the
[53:36] target property and area that we are
[53:37] acquiring and where the data sits to
[53:40] where that that balance is. For some of
[53:42] our people completely do it now. It's
[53:45] great. For some of the people it's going
[53:46] to be spring. For some of the people
[53:47] it's going to be you need to wait.
[53:49] There's a lot of data that we got to uh
[53:51] put into that with all of these people.
[53:54] Oh, hold on. We got to talk about the
[53:55] investors with our investors. Our
[53:56] investors should be shopping. I spoke
[53:58] with another investor yesterday. Uh
[54:00] they're building some daddos and he had
[54:04] me look at a development project in
[54:07] Stanwood. Stanwood is very overs
[54:09] supplied right now. Uh kind of scary if
[54:11] you're going to go fight in uh Stanwood,
[54:14] Washington.
[54:16] And I said, "Well, here's here's my
[54:18] thoughts on why this is not selling and
[54:20] you know what you need to do." And then
[54:21] he goes, "Hey, you got any permits?" And
[54:24] I was like, "Brother, man, I always got
[54:26] permits." I was like, "I got permits. I
[54:28] got projects. I have things I can always
[54:30] sell you." He goes, "You got a single
[54:32] family or a dad that you guys would let
[54:34] go of right now?" And I go, "Yeah, what
[54:37] do you uh we got a nice little 1500
[54:40] square foot uh single family in uh Lake
[54:43] Stevens." He goes, "Send it over." He
[54:46] goes, "Anything else?" I goes, "Yeah, we
[54:47] got this other one and then I've got
[54:48] this other listing coming." and
[54:52] he said, "Well, let me know when that
[54:53] listing, you know, goes on the market
[54:54] cuz it's going to go on the market in
[54:56] like a week." But the moral of the story
[54:58] is they're out shopping right now to
[55:00] fill their pipeline for 2027.
[55:03] You need to follow the inventory. You
[55:05] need to follow the motivated seller. You
[55:06] need to look for higher days on market.
[55:09] It's not just about the price. It's
[55:12] about the payment. It's about getting
[55:14] those buy downs. It's about getting
[55:16] those protections. It's also about, you
[55:19] know, kind of a creative idea of looking
[55:21] for creative financing options where
[55:23] maybe you can assume a mortgage, maybe
[55:26] you can wrap the underlying mortgage.
[55:27] That's a whole creative financing
[55:29] strategy in itself. And for the sellers
[55:32] that are on the market or considering
[55:35] going on the market, you got to look at
[55:38] the data. If the market is trending in a
[55:40] slight downward direction, please
[55:43] understand it's like you're a little kid
[55:45] and you just dropped your basketball and
[55:47] your basketball is now rolling away from
[55:49] you down the hill. In order to go get
[55:52] your basketball, you have to run in
[55:55] front of it and get ahead of it. Get
[55:58] ahead of the market. When I talked um
[56:03] uh uh last week at a um at a event with
[56:08] a bunch of people, I said you need to
[56:10] take those comparables and the
[56:13] comparables based on their age, you have
[56:15] to wait adjust them. In other words, if
[56:18] it's a few months old, you have to look
[56:20] at the rate at which the market is
[56:22] changing and you have to pull that off
[56:24] that comparable and probably slightly a
[56:26] little bit more in order to get in front
[56:28] of that ball.
[56:31] And a bunch of agents came up and
[56:33] they're like, "Oh, I hadn't thought of
[56:34] that." It's because they didn't go
[56:35] through the great financial crisis. They
[56:37] haven't seen this playbook before. Three
[56:40] things to remember as we close here.
[56:43] It's not the people who got fired. It's
[56:47] the ones who are getting nervous. And I
[56:49] love Warren Buffett's quote, you should
[56:51] be greedy when others are fearful and
[56:54] fearful when others are greedy. And so I
[56:57] just told you new construction was
[56:59] getting decimated. And what did Warren
[57:02] Buffett just invest in in the last few
[57:05] weeks? He went and put money into a new
[57:09] construction home builder because the
[57:11] new construction home builder is
[57:12] slightly beat up. I'm telling you what I
[57:14] am also doing. Layoffs alone just give
[57:18] you the slight grind down. But it's the
[57:20] layoffs. It's the rate shocks. It's the
[57:23] Iran conflict. It's all of this
[57:26] uncertainty. And of course, now
[57:28] elections right around the corner, too.
[57:30] Midterms. Markets do not reward people
[57:34] who wait for the perfect time. They
[57:36] reward people who choose their goals and
[57:39] take action towards them. You can hit us
[57:42] up at rsg.com if we can help you at all
[57:45] in real estate. And please, the majority
[57:47] of the audience who watches these is not
[57:49] subscribed. So, if you guys would
[57:50] subscribe, comment, share this with an
[57:53] agent that needs to see this data. Share
[57:55] this with a friend that needs to see
[57:58] this. And remember, according to
[58:00] realtor.com and Chad GPT, verified their
[58:03] data, the buying window starts right
[58:06] around the corner here, October 18th.
[58:08] Let's go, people. Thank you.