WEBVTT

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has been pressed.

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It is spinning around in a circle and

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it says it is live.

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Hi, I'm Anton Stettner.

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I was asked the question this week,

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is tech affecting home prices here in the

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Seattle Metro?

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What is tech doing to us?

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Or more importantly,

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what is Washington State doing to us?

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What is the politicians and their ideology

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doing to us that's affecting tech?

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I'm

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For those of you that don't know,

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tech is about twenty two percent of the

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economy here in Washington state.

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That's right.

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Like one in five jobs.

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And so when tech changes,

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it affects our whole economy here in

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Washington state.

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And we've got big giants here, Amazon,

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Microsoft.

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You've got Google.

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You've got Facebook.

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You have a whole tech ecosystem here in

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Washington State.

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And today we're just going to answer the

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simple question.

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How is tech affecting housing?

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I'm Anton Stettner.

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I've sold a bunch of real estate for

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literally decades here in the Seattle

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Metro.

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I'm a nerd.

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I like making content.

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I like talking about data and the numbers.

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and i hope you do too so drop

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your questions and comments below right

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into the chat as we're doing this live

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and then if you watch this on the

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replay drop any questions and comments

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below about which areas which cities which

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zip codes which neighborhoods and we will

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happily provide you data now the data i'm

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going to share with you today i will

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uh put a link in the pinned comment

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probably with the same title,

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to our new website, AskAnton.com.

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It's only eighty percent finished,

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so it's not perfect.

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But we're going to put up a copy

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of the data that I am sharing with

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you today.

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Because going back to this idea is really

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what is happening here in the Seattle

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metro?

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What's changing?

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Because clearly the housing market is

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changing.

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And you've got home prices down year over

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year.

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So I was in here looking at the

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MLS.

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And I'm just going to pull up King

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County for a second.

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And if you look at King County and

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you look at the median prices,

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you can see that we're basically trending

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right now in a slightly downward

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direction.

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the question was well how much of that

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is tech affecting i'm going to tell you

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that tech is massively affecting the

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market here and that the the story is

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very simple sales are down prices are

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slightly declining the amount of available

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inventory is up buyers are getting more of

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what they want which has been really rare

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for our area

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And it's getting worse.

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Now, this isn't just a tech story.

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Of course, it is a interest rate story.

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We've got the the ten year treasury.

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That is just oh, my ridiculousness.

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That's just I mean, it's just skyrocketed.

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This should have stopped here at about

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five percent.

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The ten year treasury is what affects our

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thirty year fixed debt.

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And the reason this is so high is

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because of the Strait of Hormuz.

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There is still too much oil and conflict

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going on here.

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This is causing oil prices to rise,

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diesel prices to rise.

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But here locally, we've got more stories,

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though.

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We've got Asha.

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It's important email was sent to all

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employees at Xbox.

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Anyone else play Xbox?

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My name is Anton.

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I play video games.

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I play Xbox.

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What's your favorite video game?

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I am a first-person shooter.

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I play Call of Duty.

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I don't have time to learn multiple video

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games.

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I'm too busy.

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So I play one video game at a

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time and that's all I play so I

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can be decently good so when I'm fighting

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against the other thirteen-year-olds on

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the internet,

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I'm talking age-wise and maturity,

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that I'm decent and I don't get...

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And my assistant, Sasha,

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who is on a WhatsApp Live,

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just commented back and said,

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and that's probably the only aspect of

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your life where you do one thing at

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a time.

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But moral of the story is Xbox.

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And we all love them.

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I mean, they're here.

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You can see that I've made the difficult

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decision to reduce our team by

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approximately three thousand two hundred

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people throughout fiscal year twenty

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seven.

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This will include approximately sixteen

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hundred role eliminations today.

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In addition,

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four studios will leave Xbox to new

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management.

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So.

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Yes, I get it.

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The video game industry is changing,

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but also this is tech having problems in

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our area.

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Let's look at GeekWire.

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GeekWire just literally said this week,

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Microsoft cuts hundreds more jobs,

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shifts Halo to Activision and Xbox

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overhaul.

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Ari Hoffman earlier this year,

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Microsoft eliminating forty eight hundred

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rolls,

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about two point one percent of its global

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workforce.

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I love this commenter right here.

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Starbucks is leaving.

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Boeing is moving engineering to South

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Carolina.

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I don't care.

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I will tax every last business out of

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Washington.

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And it shows a picture of Bob Ferguson.

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When you look around, though, and you go,

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wait a second,

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is this just Washington state?

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Are we losing part of our tech industry

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right now?

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Maybe this is happening in other areas.

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Well,

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Redfin had a good article about this.

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Redfin showed us San Francisco housing

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market booms while Seattle slumps.

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Well,

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if it was just tech and if it

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was just the AI doom narrative that it's

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all falling apart and AI is coming for

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jobs.

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P.S.

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I'm sick of hearing that crap.

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And it's not happening.

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then it would be happening in San

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Francisco too.

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You would see it happening in San

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Francisco,

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except for what's happening in San

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Francisco is home sales jumped nine

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percent year over year in San Francisco

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while they fell nine percent in Seattle.

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This article is from September second,

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beginning of the month.

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Both West Coast cities are packed with a

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highly paid tech workforce and big tech

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name employers.

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We also face a lot of the same

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restrictions on housing and zoning and

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just massive red tape.

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So prices are rising in San Francisco

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while they're falling here in the Seattle

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Metro.

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For those of you that are just joining

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us,

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feel free to drop questions or comments

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about specific areas.

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For those of you watching on the replay,

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drop it and we'll come back and we'll

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answer those.

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But I want to show you more of

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this data.

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Because pending sales are down double

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digit and active listings are up double

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digit.

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Prices are the last thing to move.

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So what happens is like the demand moves

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first.

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And as the demand moves,

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the demand then causes the prices and the

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activity to change.

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Now,

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the demand is influenced by global

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economic factors, by the price of oil,

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by inflation, by the uncertainty.

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I'm not discounting that.

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But what I'm telling you here is we

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are seeing it worse in the Seattle metro

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because of tech.

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And I'm going to go into one city

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specifically that blows my mind how much

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it has changed,

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which was kind of my hypothesis for this

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whole live that we are going through.

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Essentially,

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we have more homes coming on the market

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and fewer buyers stepping up to purchase

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them.

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Axios, September,

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the relentless drip of Seattle's tech

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layoffs.

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A giant layoff may grab headlines,

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but the tech sector is also enduring a

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seemingly relentless drip of smaller cuts.

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Fifty jobs here, a hundred jobs here.

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And I need to reopen.

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Yeah, I didn't write that number.

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I got to reopen my chat,

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my chat GPT.

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What's your favorite AI program?

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Like, are you a chat GPT fan?

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Are you a Claude fan?

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Grok?

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Do you like running your own hardware,

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Hermes?

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What are you doing right now with AI?

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Now, while I open this in the background,

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There it is.

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That's what I was looking for.

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Through September, twenty twenty six.

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We have twenty.

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Tech layoff rounds.

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Amazon twenty two hundred.

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Meta fourteen hundred.

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Microsoft six oh five.

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Through August eighteenth.

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Nine thousand.

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Twenty-seven layoff notices have been

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filed in King County and the surrounding.

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About six thousand seven hundred and

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sixty-six.

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Seventy-five percent were in the

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information sector, a.k.a.

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tech.

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And you also saw it affecting T-Mobile,

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Expedia, Snap.

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I mean, these are all

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you know, massive,

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big companies in our area.

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And what's happening too is when we see

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these tech layoffs,

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they are high-paying jobs.

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And so those high-paying jobs are

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affecting Bellevue, Redmond.

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They're affecting King County.

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They're affecting Bothell.

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I got to give you the spoiler alert.

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Bothell's obliterated.

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Bothell and, hold on, which one was it?

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It's Bothell and I think Redmond.

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No, Bothell and Bellevue,

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nine eight zero two one and nine eight

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zero zero seven.

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Thirteen percent in Bothell,

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thirteen point two in Bellevue.

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Oh my goodness.

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Those are big numbers.

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And so I said, you know,

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I did a little more research and I

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was like, well, what's been happening?

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Washington state is experiencing tech

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layoffs at the second highest in the

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country.

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Ladies and gentlemen,

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this is political ideology,

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not surviving economic reality.

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Our politicians need to understand that

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our success of the past is not a

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guarantee of success in the future.

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And so many businesses came to Washington

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State with this promise of no income tax,

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of a business-friendly environment.

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Washington State's business-friendly

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climate drops.

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If you're not using voice to text,

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you got to get on this.

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So look at this.

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Washington State's business climate has

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faced mounting pressure

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We have dropped to forty seventh in the

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nation.

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Now, I only went to high school,

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you know, over there in Arlington, just,

00:12:16.804 --> 00:12:18.465
you know, the one horse town,

00:12:19.086 --> 00:12:21.186
the two cows.

00:12:22.746 --> 00:12:25.347
But forty seventh out of fifty seems bad,

00:12:25.587 --> 00:12:25.847
right?

00:12:28.104 --> 00:12:28.583
I don't know.

00:12:28.964 --> 00:12:30.664
That math seems kind of bad.

00:12:31.125 --> 00:12:34.926
It's bad when Gregoire and Locke start

00:12:34.946 --> 00:12:35.946
coming out and saying, hey,

00:12:35.966 --> 00:12:37.767
boys and girls, stop spending.

00:12:38.427 --> 00:12:40.628
You got to stop attacking small business.

00:12:40.868 --> 00:12:44.288
But it's showing up already in the data.

00:12:44.469 --> 00:12:46.448
And this is showing up here in real

00:12:46.509 --> 00:12:46.788
estate.

00:12:46.830 --> 00:12:49.049
That's what I'm trying to tell you.

00:12:49.070 --> 00:12:51.691
This is not a continuable thing.

00:12:52.947 --> 00:12:53.366
All right,

00:12:53.386 --> 00:12:54.988
let's go through the chat real quick.

00:12:55.427 --> 00:12:56.748
Then I'm going to dig into a little

00:12:56.788 --> 00:12:59.249
bit of this data.

00:12:59.489 --> 00:13:00.669
Unfortunately, the U.S.

00:13:00.710 --> 00:13:02.951
is going lower in value.

00:13:03.951 --> 00:13:04.431
Yes and no.

00:13:05.192 --> 00:13:07.451
There are places in the U.S.

00:13:08.852 --> 00:13:11.874
that you can go in and you can

00:13:12.094 --> 00:13:14.855
look.

00:13:15.274 --> 00:13:16.515
And you can see.

00:13:17.975 --> 00:13:18.697
Ah, there we go.

00:13:18.736 --> 00:13:19.236
There we go.

00:13:21.140 --> 00:13:24.243
where you can see metros that are actually

00:13:24.302 --> 00:13:25.263
doing quite well.

00:13:25.823 --> 00:13:27.284
So let me show you.

00:13:27.304 --> 00:13:28.424
I'm gonna throw that data up on the

00:13:28.445 --> 00:13:30.186
screen.

00:13:30.206 --> 00:13:30.687
Boom.

00:13:31.527 --> 00:13:32.927
So this is Redfin Data Center.

00:13:32.988 --> 00:13:34.369
You can go through and look at this.

00:13:34.448 --> 00:13:36.389
This is what I look at real quick

00:13:36.409 --> 00:13:37.730
when I wanna look at national stuff.

00:13:39.821 --> 00:13:41.822
Year over year price changes.

00:13:41.883 --> 00:13:42.543
Look at that.

00:13:42.624 --> 00:13:44.846
San Francisco, sixteen percent.

00:13:44.905 --> 00:13:47.269
Milwaukee, nine point three.

00:13:47.668 --> 00:13:49.591
Philadelphia, a St.

00:13:49.770 --> 00:13:51.633
Louis, seven Cleveland,

00:13:51.692 --> 00:13:54.176
six right on down the line.

00:13:54.735 --> 00:13:57.658
So there are places that are, you know,

00:13:57.778 --> 00:13:58.419
doing bad,

00:13:58.440 --> 00:14:00.062
but there are places that are doing

00:14:00.162 --> 00:14:01.163
totally fine.

00:14:03.018 --> 00:14:04.619
And what's interesting too is you go,

00:14:05.198 --> 00:14:07.700
why is San Francisco doing so well and

00:14:07.779 --> 00:14:09.160
Seattle isn't?

00:14:09.780 --> 00:14:11.542
That should be the question you should be

00:14:11.682 --> 00:14:12.361
asking yourself.

00:14:12.682 --> 00:14:15.923
We should be outperforming San Francisco.

00:14:17.004 --> 00:14:18.404
I like it more here.

00:14:18.705 --> 00:14:20.365
Everyone likes it more here.

00:14:20.846 --> 00:14:22.907
But San Francisco is kicking our butt

00:14:22.947 --> 00:14:23.466
right now.

00:14:23.687 --> 00:14:24.927
Like, come on, people.

00:14:26.445 --> 00:14:27.765
We bought our home in Marysville in twenty

00:14:27.806 --> 00:14:29.246
twenty two point eight five.

00:14:29.287 --> 00:14:30.187
Had two children.

00:14:30.346 --> 00:14:31.268
Love to move to a larger home,

00:14:31.288 --> 00:14:33.989
but it's impossible losing our interest

00:14:34.009 --> 00:14:35.129
rate, losing the value.

00:14:35.190 --> 00:14:36.330
You know what, Michael?

00:14:37.071 --> 00:14:37.831
I agree with you.

00:14:38.831 --> 00:14:39.451
Unfortunately,

00:14:39.552 --> 00:14:41.653
what we call you is we call you

00:14:42.254 --> 00:14:43.914
an interest rate hostage.

00:14:44.634 --> 00:14:45.796
It's the lock in effect.

00:14:46.375 --> 00:14:48.517
It's when prices were really low.

00:14:48.557 --> 00:14:49.298
And what I'm going to do is I'll

00:14:49.357 --> 00:14:52.019
pull up Snohomish County in the background

00:14:52.058 --> 00:14:53.179
just to look at the county as a

00:14:53.240 --> 00:14:53.440
whole.

00:14:55.359 --> 00:14:59.441
And when prices were really low, you know,

00:14:59.821 --> 00:15:01.880
the market was starting to slow down right

00:15:01.941 --> 00:15:02.302
here,

00:15:02.642 --> 00:15:05.263
right before COVID in eighteen as the Fed

00:15:05.283 --> 00:15:05.923
was hiking.

00:15:06.302 --> 00:15:08.563
Then magically we had this thing that was

00:15:08.583 --> 00:15:10.345
going to kill us and magically the Federal

00:15:10.365 --> 00:15:11.865
Reserve had to massively lower rates.

00:15:11.884 --> 00:15:12.884
And so prices shot up.

00:15:13.326 --> 00:15:14.405
But look, since twenty twenty two,

00:15:14.426 --> 00:15:16.226
they've been moving sideways.

00:15:16.246 --> 00:15:17.726
The problem is, though,

00:15:18.307 --> 00:15:19.868
is during that same time period,

00:15:20.347 --> 00:15:22.129
mortgage rates like you just said.

00:15:25.850 --> 00:15:30.451
mortgage rates went from three percent.

00:15:30.792 --> 00:15:33.452
So today, let's go to Mortgage News Daily.

00:15:33.533 --> 00:15:34.572
Mortgage News Daily.

00:15:35.173 --> 00:15:35.513
Whoops.

00:15:36.813 --> 00:15:38.374
Mortgage News Daily.

00:15:38.433 --> 00:15:38.754
Boom.

00:15:40.374 --> 00:15:41.335
Oh, my goodness.

00:15:41.375 --> 00:15:44.254
Today, that's seven point five eight.

00:15:44.554 --> 00:15:46.975
I mean, that's literally a doubling,

00:15:47.816 --> 00:15:48.296
Michael.

00:15:48.375 --> 00:15:49.375
And you're not the only one.

00:15:49.436 --> 00:15:50.755
So you're an interest rate hostage.

00:15:50.775 --> 00:15:52.976
You're an equity hostage.

00:15:54.503 --> 00:15:56.062
we can't afford to move to the next

00:15:56.182 --> 00:15:57.783
one and the federal reserve right now is

00:15:57.803 --> 00:16:02.544
talking about hiking rates even more it's

00:16:02.585 --> 00:16:06.544
just crazy where we're at right now okay

00:16:07.686 --> 00:16:16.927
what else we got uh everyone thomas i

00:16:16.947 --> 00:16:20.148
see your comment there are people making

00:16:20.207 --> 00:16:23.548
money people making money

00:16:24.815 --> 00:16:28.336
So, let's look at Fred.

00:16:30.197 --> 00:16:37.261
Federal Reserve, third-year fixed debt.

00:16:41.303 --> 00:16:42.705
Okay, the Federal Reserve,

00:16:42.725 --> 00:16:43.645
third-year fixed.

00:16:45.386 --> 00:16:45.626
I mean,

00:16:45.726 --> 00:16:47.408
look how low it got right there in

00:16:47.427 --> 00:16:48.207
in twenty twenty.

00:16:48.628 --> 00:16:49.808
That's where you got that mortgage and

00:16:49.828 --> 00:16:50.950
then boom, it shot up.

00:16:51.870 --> 00:16:52.691
It caused

00:16:53.754 --> 00:16:56.495
united states to go from like six and

00:16:56.515 --> 00:16:58.456
a half million in sales to about four

00:16:58.557 --> 00:17:02.097
million you then also saw and i'm still

00:17:02.118 --> 00:17:03.438
in snohomish county but let's go over here

00:17:03.458 --> 00:17:06.180
to close sales you saw closed sales in

00:17:06.240 --> 00:17:08.181
snohomish county for conversation's sake

00:17:09.340 --> 00:17:12.102
at eighteen hundred in june of twenty one

00:17:13.383 --> 00:17:15.663
and then last month there in august there

00:17:15.683 --> 00:17:19.164
was eight hundred and thirty six a

00:17:19.265 --> 00:17:20.566
thousand units less

00:17:21.914 --> 00:17:24.037
Let's go to June of this year to

00:17:24.057 --> 00:17:25.258
make the exact comparison.

00:17:25.617 --> 00:17:28.099
There would be eight hundred units less in

00:17:28.140 --> 00:17:28.779
this June.

00:17:29.180 --> 00:17:29.380
I mean,

00:17:29.420 --> 00:17:31.541
look at that overhead space that's just

00:17:31.662 --> 00:17:36.384
massively missing what's happening.

00:17:36.945 --> 00:17:40.689
And I don't know if Trump cares or

00:17:40.729 --> 00:17:41.749
Trump doesn't care.

00:17:42.150 --> 00:17:43.009
I see the comment.

00:17:44.111 --> 00:17:46.932
I think whether this was Trump, Biden,

00:17:46.992 --> 00:17:48.213
Republican, Democrat,

00:17:48.473 --> 00:17:49.494
it doesn't really matter.

00:17:50.626 --> 00:17:54.083
When inflation is high,

00:17:55.173 --> 00:17:57.174
And the consumer is feeling pinched.

00:17:57.474 --> 00:17:59.455
The consumer will do everything possible

00:17:59.536 --> 00:18:02.576
to get that party out of office and

00:18:02.596 --> 00:18:03.156
replace them.

00:18:04.076 --> 00:18:05.577
That's just a reality.

00:18:06.077 --> 00:18:09.680
Consumers vote with their pocketbooks.

00:18:10.559 --> 00:18:13.161
And inflation is being driven right now

00:18:13.540 --> 00:18:16.102
mainly by oil prices.

00:18:16.362 --> 00:18:18.623
I mean, look how much diesel is.

00:18:19.042 --> 00:18:21.124
Diesel is outrageous oil.

00:18:21.892 --> 00:18:22.373
right now.

00:18:23.093 --> 00:18:24.994
Almost eight bucks a gallon.

00:18:26.457 --> 00:18:27.857
So back to good old tech.

00:18:29.220 --> 00:18:31.040
Tech here in the Seattle metro.

00:18:33.284 --> 00:18:35.726
Tech in Seattle.

00:18:37.887 --> 00:18:39.309
And when we're talking about tech in

00:18:39.369 --> 00:18:41.992
Seattle, realize that tech buyer,

00:18:43.054 --> 00:18:44.015
they're making good wages.

00:18:45.285 --> 00:18:47.165
so when you remove that tech buyer that

00:18:47.205 --> 00:18:50.086
was making a hundred and fifty grand two

00:18:50.127 --> 00:18:53.608
hundred grand three hundred grand all of a

00:18:53.689 --> 00:18:55.829
sudden these properties where the median

00:18:55.869 --> 00:18:57.750
price is over a million dollars they don't

00:18:57.770 --> 00:19:05.454
make as much sense anymore and what what

00:19:05.474 --> 00:19:06.895
you're seeing is

00:19:09.815 --> 00:19:10.575
that show up.

00:19:11.275 --> 00:19:15.076
So I believe what's happening is there is

00:19:15.175 --> 00:19:19.057
a higher concentration of H one B one

00:19:19.297 --> 00:19:21.416
visas in Bothell.

00:19:22.057 --> 00:19:23.117
And so I went and did the research

00:19:23.178 --> 00:19:25.397
on that because I was like, you know,

00:19:25.438 --> 00:19:26.278
maybe there is.

00:19:27.178 --> 00:19:28.179
Uh,

00:19:28.199 --> 00:19:30.999
so I'm trying to look up the numbers

00:19:31.019 --> 00:19:34.059
due to do the department of LCA data

00:19:34.099 --> 00:19:34.819
for Bothell.

00:19:38.038 --> 00:19:41.922
shows a visible concentration of sponsored

00:19:42.102 --> 00:19:43.143
tech employment.

00:19:46.385 --> 00:19:50.148
And it's from Microsoft, T-Mobile, AT&T,

00:19:50.328 --> 00:19:52.932
HCL, Adventure, Cognizant, Salesforce,

00:19:53.531 --> 00:19:55.034
Meta, and others.

00:19:55.094 --> 00:19:56.734
The median wage is at one hundred and

00:19:56.775 --> 00:19:57.596
forty five thousand.

00:19:59.170 --> 00:20:03.211
But when we started saying, hey,

00:20:03.251 --> 00:20:05.452
we may not renew H-B-B visas,

00:20:06.153 --> 00:20:08.755
when we started deporting people,

00:20:09.974 --> 00:20:13.116
all of a sudden Bothell started getting

00:20:13.477 --> 00:20:16.337
these numbers that, I mean,

00:20:16.377 --> 00:20:18.219
quite honestly, just blow my mind.

00:20:18.259 --> 00:20:19.119
So I'm going to pull it up in

00:20:19.160 --> 00:20:19.859
the background.

00:20:20.680 --> 00:20:25.843
It is the nine nine eight zero two

00:20:26.042 --> 00:20:26.222
one.

00:20:28.593 --> 00:20:35.275
holy tolito holy tolito carlito wow this

00:20:35.315 --> 00:20:38.076
blows my mind okay so i'm going to

00:20:38.096 --> 00:20:41.277
show you five years in bothell when you

00:20:41.297 --> 00:20:43.998
look at the five years in bothell massive

00:20:44.018 --> 00:20:46.759
shoot up in price okay now we're looking

00:20:46.798 --> 00:20:51.099
at median median is the middle so it's

00:20:51.160 --> 00:20:52.839
less affected by the highs and the lows

00:20:52.880 --> 00:20:54.080
but still definitely affected

00:20:54.917 --> 00:20:56.759
And the average is add them all together,

00:20:56.778 --> 00:20:57.440
divide by the total.

00:20:57.460 --> 00:20:58.440
So we like to look at the median

00:20:58.480 --> 00:21:03.443
because it seems to be impacted by the

00:21:03.483 --> 00:21:05.944
highs and the lows the least.

00:21:05.964 --> 00:21:08.307
What you can see in the data was

00:21:08.346 --> 00:21:09.807
the median price in January,

00:21:09.867 --> 00:21:12.269
twenty twenty five was one point four

00:21:12.470 --> 00:21:15.932
million dollars.

00:21:15.991 --> 00:21:16.813
Last month,

00:21:17.192 --> 00:21:18.493
let me make this big so it's easier

00:21:18.534 --> 00:21:19.114
for you to see it.

00:21:20.555 --> 00:21:22.876
One point one two five.

00:21:24.093 --> 00:21:25.695
Holy shnikes.

00:21:25.776 --> 00:21:27.137
You guys remember Scooby-Doo?

00:21:27.798 --> 00:21:28.420
Shnikes!

00:21:31.904 --> 00:21:35.289
One point four to one point one to...

00:21:36.962 --> 00:21:40.503
that is two hundred and seventy five

00:21:40.584 --> 00:21:43.546
thousand dollars in difference that is

00:21:43.625 --> 00:21:46.507
just wild now i just uh i was

00:21:46.527 --> 00:21:49.508
showing you the data not smoothed now this

00:21:49.528 --> 00:21:52.068
is the data smooth aka over a rolling

00:21:52.108 --> 00:21:54.470
twelve you'll see the peak is one point

00:21:54.730 --> 00:21:58.250
two one five in october down to nine

00:21:58.290 --> 00:21:59.731
hundred and ninety five thousand

00:22:02.445 --> 00:22:04.826
This August and September's data will be

00:22:04.846 --> 00:22:05.567
done here real soon.

00:22:06.287 --> 00:22:07.288
It's down.

00:22:08.347 --> 00:22:10.548
We got a zip code in, in Bellevue,

00:22:10.689 --> 00:22:12.909
literally showing the same thing.

00:22:12.949 --> 00:22:13.630
Just wild.

00:22:14.609 --> 00:22:16.611
If you guys want to know, you know,

00:22:16.631 --> 00:22:17.411
specific data,

00:22:18.171 --> 00:22:19.132
let me know in the comments,

00:22:19.731 --> 00:22:21.172
I'm going to drop in our data and

00:22:21.231 --> 00:22:22.633
research for this.

00:22:23.173 --> 00:22:23.792
But once again,

00:22:23.952 --> 00:22:25.614
I was going in with the hypothesis of

00:22:25.653 --> 00:22:29.375
like, is tech is tech.

00:22:30.232 --> 00:22:32.273
Like genuinely causing the housing market

00:22:32.294 --> 00:22:32.834
to slow down.

00:22:33.394 --> 00:22:34.674
And I'm going to throw this up and

00:22:34.714 --> 00:22:36.415
I got to share this because this one's

00:22:37.256 --> 00:22:38.096
a JPEG.

00:22:39.636 --> 00:22:40.596
Share screen.

00:22:42.538 --> 00:22:43.137
Window.

00:22:43.278 --> 00:22:43.758
There it is.

00:22:44.019 --> 00:22:44.459
Share.

00:22:45.618 --> 00:22:46.440
Oh, perfect.

00:22:46.519 --> 00:22:49.961
Make me small.

00:22:49.980 --> 00:22:53.362
I will put this data into a link

00:22:53.402 --> 00:22:54.762
in the chat so you can see it.

00:22:56.205 --> 00:22:59.866
There is absolutely a direct correlation

00:23:00.147 --> 00:23:03.108
in tech and the secondary tech market.

00:23:03.828 --> 00:23:08.550
You can see that in the core tech

00:23:08.931 --> 00:23:09.371
market,

00:23:10.771 --> 00:23:15.074
that it is basically down six percent

00:23:16.773 --> 00:23:19.335
versus just regular King County is only

00:23:19.375 --> 00:23:20.715
down three and a half.

00:23:22.281 --> 00:23:24.702
the secondary tech markets down about five

00:23:24.782 --> 00:23:27.423
point nine percent aka six well regular

00:23:27.442 --> 00:23:29.544
king county down three and a half snowmage

00:23:29.564 --> 00:23:33.684
county is basically the same too and so

00:23:33.724 --> 00:23:36.385
when our listeners our subscribers the

00:23:36.405 --> 00:23:37.506
people that hang out with us in the

00:23:37.546 --> 00:23:39.886
community go hey what's happening with

00:23:39.926 --> 00:23:41.826
tech is this affecting real estate this

00:23:41.866 --> 00:23:44.228
was a great thing to dig into it's

00:23:44.327 --> 00:23:47.169
super clear in the data also what's funny

00:23:48.342 --> 00:23:52.503
I opened up chat GPT, opened up Claude,

00:23:52.864 --> 00:23:54.925
and I put in this hypothesis and I

00:23:54.945 --> 00:23:56.165
said, go grab this data.

00:23:56.185 --> 00:23:57.487
And I grabbed it a bunch of data,

00:23:57.527 --> 00:23:58.207
I upload it.

00:23:58.948 --> 00:24:01.229
And immediately the stupid nannies,

00:24:01.808 --> 00:24:03.250
anyone else get the AI nannies?

00:24:03.589 --> 00:24:05.671
The AI stupid nannies start telling me,

00:24:06.311 --> 00:24:06.632
oh,

00:24:07.352 --> 00:24:09.773
you can't think of this as correlation.

00:24:09.834 --> 00:24:11.253
It's not correlated.

00:24:11.354 --> 00:24:13.455
I was like, then run the statistical math.

00:24:14.056 --> 00:24:15.596
And then it's like, oh yeah,

00:24:15.636 --> 00:24:17.617
by the way, this is definitely correlated.

00:24:19.045 --> 00:24:19.724
No she's.

00:24:20.685 --> 00:24:21.766
Like, no she's, Batman.

00:24:22.506 --> 00:24:24.067
That's S-H-I-T,

00:24:24.106 --> 00:24:28.347
just me bleeping it out for you.

00:24:28.387 --> 00:24:30.969
Because you knew it, you felt it,

00:24:30.989 --> 00:24:32.410
you could see it on the ground.

00:24:32.950 --> 00:24:35.790
But the model is weird about, you know,

00:24:35.871 --> 00:24:38.652
they're trying to keep their political

00:24:38.731 --> 00:24:39.951
bias in there.

00:24:39.971 --> 00:24:43.773
They're trying to keep you from saying

00:24:43.834 --> 00:24:45.634
something when inside the data there's a

00:24:45.713 --> 00:24:47.454
clear correlation here.

00:24:48.373 --> 00:24:49.053
Pretty amazing.

00:24:49.532 --> 00:24:49.834
All right.

00:24:49.854 --> 00:24:51.114
What do we got for more questions?

00:24:51.153 --> 00:24:52.094
More comments.

00:24:52.694 --> 00:24:55.355
My wife runs a small resale business.

00:24:55.375 --> 00:24:56.135
When the tariff hits,

00:24:56.155 --> 00:24:56.955
she had to pay more,

00:24:57.316 --> 00:24:59.237
but now the giant companies got reimbursed

00:24:59.257 --> 00:25:00.597
and small businesses did not.

00:25:00.718 --> 00:25:03.278
Tough for the little guy.

00:25:03.659 --> 00:25:05.019
If, and this is just my understanding,

00:25:05.759 --> 00:25:07.779
not financial advice, not legal advice,

00:25:08.220 --> 00:25:11.521
but my understanding is that any business

00:25:11.561 --> 00:25:14.182
can go get the tariffs back that are

00:25:14.303 --> 00:25:14.762
owed to them.

00:25:16.229 --> 00:25:20.509
And what I would do there is here.

00:25:20.690 --> 00:25:21.349
Hold on.

00:25:21.750 --> 00:25:23.590
I got to remove this one.

00:25:24.310 --> 00:25:25.332
Stop sharing that screen.

00:25:27.112 --> 00:25:27.672
Share screen.

00:25:29.712 --> 00:25:30.232
Window.

00:25:31.512 --> 00:25:32.212
Oh, come on.

00:25:32.292 --> 00:25:32.753
There we go.

00:25:34.574 --> 00:25:36.894
What I would do there is I would

00:25:37.115 --> 00:25:40.195
open my favorite model.

00:25:40.236 --> 00:25:41.395
Something like ChatGPT.

00:25:43.286 --> 00:25:45.686
And what I would do is I would

00:25:45.727 --> 00:25:48.328
go into work and I'd go to,

00:25:48.929 --> 00:25:52.030
and I'd go roll Astra and roll Astra

00:25:52.131 --> 00:25:54.932
on high and give it computer use.

00:25:56.153 --> 00:25:57.433
And you could try this in cloud code

00:25:57.453 --> 00:25:57.653
too.

00:25:58.614 --> 00:26:00.496
And I would say, I'm a small business.

00:26:01.715 --> 00:26:02.977
I want to get my tariff money back.

00:26:04.622 --> 00:26:05.462
How do I do that?

00:26:05.682 --> 00:26:06.844
Walk me through the steps.

00:26:06.983 --> 00:26:09.005
Tell me the documentation that you need.

00:26:09.526 --> 00:26:11.707
Give it the documentation and have it send

00:26:11.787 --> 00:26:13.249
off the letters for you.

00:26:13.828 --> 00:26:15.289
Propose the emails,

00:26:15.450 --> 00:26:16.770
write the documentation,

00:26:16.810 --> 00:26:18.833
and definitely go fight to get your money.

00:26:19.313 --> 00:26:20.753
The problem is these big corporations,

00:26:20.773 --> 00:26:23.496
they got millions that they can spend on

00:26:23.536 --> 00:26:24.176
things like this.

00:26:24.537 --> 00:26:25.438
They've got attorneys.

00:26:25.458 --> 00:26:26.659
They got staff members.

00:26:26.679 --> 00:26:27.519
They have admin.

00:26:28.140 --> 00:26:29.300
I operate a small business.

00:26:30.209 --> 00:26:31.869
We operate multiple small businesses here

00:26:31.890 --> 00:26:32.369
in real estate.

00:26:32.410 --> 00:26:33.330
So I feel for you.

00:26:34.030 --> 00:26:36.051
And a lot of things come down to,

00:26:36.471 --> 00:26:37.252
you know, me,

00:26:37.393 --> 00:26:38.712
the business owner at the end of the

00:26:38.732 --> 00:26:38.933
day.

00:26:38.993 --> 00:26:40.213
Yes, we have staff.

00:26:41.134 --> 00:26:42.955
My father-in-law told me a story when I

00:26:42.976 --> 00:26:43.455
was a kid.

00:26:43.476 --> 00:26:45.737
Oh, there goes my pen.

00:26:46.676 --> 00:26:49.838
He said, if you are not willing,

00:26:50.038 --> 00:26:51.359
and he was a small business owner too.

00:26:52.000 --> 00:26:54.541
If you're not willing to be the janitor,

00:26:55.301 --> 00:26:57.282
the cook, the bookkeeper,

00:26:58.836 --> 00:27:00.857
he owned a restaurant, the host,

00:27:01.577 --> 00:27:04.098
the dishwasher,

00:27:04.579 --> 00:27:06.519
and the manager and the owner all at

00:27:06.580 --> 00:27:07.480
the same time,

00:27:07.661 --> 00:27:09.261
then don't go into business.

00:27:10.142 --> 00:27:11.303
And part of being that small business

00:27:11.343 --> 00:27:12.143
owner, which is so hard,

00:27:12.202 --> 00:27:14.104
is you have to do all of these

00:27:14.124 --> 00:27:14.403
things.

00:27:14.443 --> 00:27:15.003
So once again,

00:27:15.064 --> 00:27:16.565
I'd recommend having one of these models

00:27:16.605 --> 00:27:17.305
help you with it,

00:27:17.746 --> 00:27:21.586
and they could totally help you do that.

00:27:21.646 --> 00:27:22.827
My house has doubled in value since I

00:27:22.887 --> 00:27:23.347
bought it.

00:27:23.708 --> 00:27:24.929
Not sure what some of you are talking

00:27:24.949 --> 00:27:25.148
about.

00:27:26.606 --> 00:27:28.488
absolutely there's quite a few homes that

00:27:28.508 --> 00:27:30.167
have doubled in value you know so once

00:27:30.188 --> 00:27:32.769
again let's just go look let's go look

00:27:32.848 --> 00:27:38.151
at uh snohomish county this time and this

00:27:38.191 --> 00:27:39.270
is once again we're looking at the

00:27:39.372 --> 00:27:42.752
smoothed out data right here the rolling

00:27:42.792 --> 00:27:46.233
twelve and if you go back

00:27:49.016 --> 00:27:51.916
Man, if anyone bought, look at that,

00:27:52.057 --> 00:27:53.317
two thousand seven,

00:27:53.336 --> 00:27:55.038
the peak was approximately three hundred

00:27:55.057 --> 00:27:55.998
forty two thousand.

00:27:56.018 --> 00:27:57.618
The bottom in Snohomish County is

00:27:57.638 --> 00:28:00.000
approximately two twenty and two thousand

00:28:00.019 --> 00:28:00.380
twelve.

00:28:00.920 --> 00:28:02.401
But let's say you bought in nineteen.

00:28:03.760 --> 00:28:03.941
I mean,

00:28:03.980 --> 00:28:07.362
that's four fifty to seven fifty right

00:28:07.382 --> 00:28:07.561
there.

00:28:07.602 --> 00:28:09.042
That's basically a doubling.

00:28:09.542 --> 00:28:10.923
And it's like that all over Snohomish

00:28:10.962 --> 00:28:12.763
County, King County, Pierce County,

00:28:12.844 --> 00:28:13.743
Thurston County.

00:28:14.223 --> 00:28:15.244
All depends on when you bought it.

00:28:16.038 --> 00:28:19.118
But when the Fed hiked up rates,

00:28:20.200 --> 00:28:22.279
when you go into these tighter timeframes

00:28:22.319 --> 00:28:24.020
and we're looking over the last five

00:28:24.101 --> 00:28:28.563
years, you can see it basically,

00:28:28.583 --> 00:28:30.222
they hiked here in twenty twenty two.

00:28:30.663 --> 00:28:32.943
The market essentially moves sideways and

00:28:33.023 --> 00:28:34.605
slightly down since then.

00:28:35.265 --> 00:28:37.185
That's what what some of these people are

00:28:37.226 --> 00:28:39.046
experiencing right now is they're thinking

00:28:39.066 --> 00:28:39.886
about selling.

00:28:40.467 --> 00:28:41.988
And if you basically bought since twenty

00:28:42.008 --> 00:28:42.407
twenty two.

00:28:43.461 --> 00:28:45.481
It is hard for you to make a

00:28:45.541 --> 00:28:45.961
profit.

00:28:48.383 --> 00:28:52.003
What do you think about the National Flood

00:28:53.144 --> 00:28:55.703
IP flood insurance situation?

00:28:58.345 --> 00:28:59.424
I don't remember.

00:28:59.505 --> 00:29:00.644
You know what?

00:29:00.664 --> 00:29:02.144
Me and Google are going to play in

00:29:02.164 --> 00:29:02.684
the background.

00:29:02.944 --> 00:29:03.484
NFIP,

00:29:03.525 --> 00:29:05.006
because I don't remember what that stands

00:29:05.105 --> 00:29:05.346
for.

00:29:05.865 --> 00:29:09.366
National Flood Insurance Program.

00:29:10.047 --> 00:29:11.987
I think, well, a couple things.

00:29:14.823 --> 00:29:15.864
I grew up in Snohomish County.

00:29:16.523 --> 00:29:20.664
So I watched the Stillagvamish River flood

00:29:20.986 --> 00:29:21.465
as a kid.

00:29:22.385 --> 00:29:25.067
I remember my mom driving her,

00:29:26.106 --> 00:29:26.907
she had a Beretta.

00:29:26.928 --> 00:29:27.028
Okay.

00:29:28.127 --> 00:29:29.489
Anyone else remember a Chevy Beretta?

00:29:29.509 --> 00:29:31.549
She has a little two-door coupe and it

00:29:31.569 --> 00:29:32.390
was maroon.

00:29:33.529 --> 00:29:35.730
And we were going to drive through the

00:29:35.851 --> 00:29:36.191
river.

00:29:36.872 --> 00:29:37.251
And she's like,

00:29:37.352 --> 00:29:38.412
I'm just going to drive through it.

00:29:38.451 --> 00:29:39.512
And it's over the road.

00:29:39.992 --> 00:29:41.833
And I was like, mom, mom,

00:29:41.853 --> 00:29:42.973
you're scaring the crap out of me.

00:29:44.660 --> 00:29:46.701
and we went through and a little bit

00:29:46.740 --> 00:29:48.441
of water came in the car kind of

00:29:48.480 --> 00:29:50.442
scooted a little bit but she just kept

00:29:50.481 --> 00:29:53.462
going it's kind of who my mom uh

00:29:53.663 --> 00:29:56.784
is she's a fiercely independent finnish

00:29:56.824 --> 00:29:59.505
woman like a hundred percent finn finns

00:29:59.765 --> 00:30:03.806
are very independent when you come from

00:30:03.846 --> 00:30:06.027
like the great north where everything is

00:30:06.126 --> 00:30:08.946
frozen you learn to just be like super

00:30:08.987 --> 00:30:10.587
independent the moral of the story is this

00:30:12.239 --> 00:30:14.902
since my childhood it seems as though

00:30:14.961 --> 00:30:18.744
flooding in our area has gotten worse and

00:30:18.785 --> 00:30:20.767
then we're seeing more flood insurance

00:30:20.787 --> 00:30:23.409
claims so these flood programs the

00:30:23.568 --> 00:30:26.873
insurance rates are going up also they've

00:30:26.913 --> 00:30:29.275
had more collections not just here in

00:30:29.315 --> 00:30:31.836
washington state but nationally against

00:30:31.916 --> 00:30:35.240
natural disasters so you're going to see

00:30:36.280 --> 00:30:39.063
more of these types of things pop up

00:30:39.103 --> 00:30:39.742
in the future.

00:30:39.903 --> 00:30:42.025
And it's just going to be more expensive.

00:30:42.664 --> 00:30:45.006
So properties that are riverfront,

00:30:45.086 --> 00:30:48.929
creekfront, that are in the floodplain,

00:30:51.089 --> 00:30:52.971
their insurance is going to just continue

00:30:52.990 --> 00:30:55.673
to cost even more and more.

00:30:55.833 --> 00:30:57.493
That's kind of what I think about it.

00:30:57.574 --> 00:30:59.894
If you have more questions, Sam,

00:31:00.415 --> 00:31:03.857
I think that's your name, Sam's GoPro...

00:31:05.557 --> 00:31:08.921
GoPro video footage, nine, one, nine,

00:31:08.980 --> 00:31:09.520
zero.

00:31:10.923 --> 00:31:11.943
I love me my GoPro.

00:31:12.784 --> 00:31:14.085
They were so good at marketing.

00:31:14.605 --> 00:31:15.747
Like everyone had to have one.

00:31:16.508 --> 00:31:17.689
But if you have more questions about that,

00:31:17.749 --> 00:31:19.230
drop it below because that's how we

00:31:19.269 --> 00:31:20.871
started this whole conversation about

00:31:21.031 --> 00:31:21.412
tech.

00:31:21.471 --> 00:31:24.674
We started this conversation because you,

00:31:24.714 --> 00:31:27.156
our listeners, our subscribers were like,

00:31:27.717 --> 00:31:30.019
what's happening with tech and with real

00:31:30.079 --> 00:31:30.460
estate?

00:31:31.819 --> 00:31:34.122
Let me show you that Bellevue zip code

00:31:34.142 --> 00:31:35.583
that's also super beat up.

00:31:36.144 --> 00:31:40.426
It is the nine eight zero zero seven.

00:31:42.669 --> 00:31:43.369
OK.

00:31:47.032 --> 00:31:48.693
So the nine eight zero zero seven,

00:31:48.733 --> 00:31:50.394
what's happened is it's peaked and it's

00:31:50.434 --> 00:31:51.195
pulled back.

00:31:51.736 --> 00:31:53.317
This definitely doesn't look as bad as

00:31:53.377 --> 00:31:53.857
Bothell.

00:31:54.298 --> 00:31:54.759
Why?

00:31:55.519 --> 00:31:56.480
OK, now it is down,

00:31:56.500 --> 00:31:58.261
but the price was higher to start with.

00:31:59.892 --> 00:32:01.232
Bothell doesn't have as much money.

00:32:01.953 --> 00:32:03.474
Bothell is a secondary market.

00:32:03.795 --> 00:32:06.616
Bothell is further from the jobs.

00:32:06.676 --> 00:32:07.678
Now, it's not just Bothell.

00:32:07.738 --> 00:32:11.121
In the data in the link below,

00:32:11.340 --> 00:32:12.801
I'll give you a copy of all the

00:32:12.842 --> 00:32:13.163
cities.

00:32:14.218 --> 00:32:16.200
and what's happening and when you go to

00:32:16.220 --> 00:32:17.800
the website if you go to look at

00:32:17.840 --> 00:32:20.682
it hey it's only eighty percent sasha on

00:32:20.722 --> 00:32:22.605
whatsapp is helping me fix it and get

00:32:22.644 --> 00:32:24.705
it all the way done team's working on

00:32:24.726 --> 00:32:25.727
getting it all the way done but we

00:32:25.767 --> 00:32:27.087
just wanted to get it launched and get

00:32:27.127 --> 00:32:32.432
it get it actually up and working yes

00:32:32.471 --> 00:32:37.316
sam is the name let's go sam scotty

00:32:37.336 --> 00:32:37.977
to hottie

00:32:39.721 --> 00:32:40.441
I like your name.

00:32:40.921 --> 00:32:42.582
Reminds me when the government bailed out

00:32:42.602 --> 00:32:43.301
the banks years ago,

00:32:43.321 --> 00:32:44.682
but left small business high and dry.

00:32:44.821 --> 00:32:47.762
Oh, don't even get me started.

00:32:47.782 --> 00:32:49.443
Okay.

00:32:49.463 --> 00:32:51.284
So during the great financial crisis,

00:32:52.023 --> 00:32:54.704
I worked for banks.

00:32:55.125 --> 00:32:56.404
We did a bunch of REOs.

00:32:56.445 --> 00:32:57.786
We did bank-owned properties.

00:32:57.826 --> 00:32:58.665
We did short sales.

00:32:58.685 --> 00:32:59.566
We did estates.

00:33:00.507 --> 00:33:02.086
We did foreclosures.

00:33:02.126 --> 00:33:02.727
We did it all.

00:33:04.367 --> 00:33:05.008
And

00:33:06.699 --> 00:33:06.818
One,

00:33:06.858 --> 00:33:08.859
I was happy to have work because I

00:33:08.880 --> 00:33:10.220
was doing a bunch of new construction

00:33:10.279 --> 00:33:12.921
before then the great financial crisis

00:33:12.941 --> 00:33:13.421
happened.

00:33:13.500 --> 00:33:15.422
It took all of that new construction away

00:33:15.461 --> 00:33:17.541
from me.

00:33:17.582 --> 00:33:27.986
But, two, two thousand eight bank bailout.

00:33:28.006 --> 00:33:28.486
Look at this.

00:33:29.445 --> 00:33:32.586
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act

00:33:32.646 --> 00:33:34.728
of two thousand eight was seven hundred

00:33:34.948 --> 00:33:35.468
billion.

00:33:36.826 --> 00:33:40.409
federal law and we brought through tarp

00:33:42.349 --> 00:33:43.790
this was the first time in american

00:33:43.851 --> 00:33:48.133
history where we we basically privatized

00:33:48.173 --> 00:33:53.296
the profits and publicized the losses now

00:33:53.576 --> 00:33:56.738
there's two parts to this though i don't

00:33:56.758 --> 00:33:58.159
like i don't love the bank bailouts

00:33:59.738 --> 00:34:00.857
Because I was working for a bunch of

00:34:00.877 --> 00:34:01.018
them,

00:34:01.117 --> 00:34:02.919
if we didn't bail some of them out,

00:34:03.338 --> 00:34:04.939
I think our whole economy was just going

00:34:04.979 --> 00:34:08.280
to go into not just the great financial

00:34:08.300 --> 00:34:08.719
crisis.

00:34:08.739 --> 00:34:10.681
We were probably going into depression

00:34:10.721 --> 00:34:13.661
number two because it was bad.

00:34:14.181 --> 00:34:18.382
If you look at the home prices during

00:34:18.422 --> 00:34:19.282
that time period.

00:34:22.103 --> 00:34:23.443
So let's go into King County real quick.

00:34:25.094 --> 00:34:27.416
And let's use average.

00:34:27.476 --> 00:34:28.077
So I mean,

00:34:28.097 --> 00:34:29.958
it gets really wild on us.

00:34:30.579 --> 00:34:32.181
We're going to max this bad boy out.

00:34:33.302 --> 00:34:34.483
So look at this.

00:34:34.503 --> 00:34:35.864
July of two thousand seven.

00:34:36.105 --> 00:34:37.686
The average price in King County was five

00:34:37.706 --> 00:34:38.626
hundred and twenty eight thousand.

00:34:39.947 --> 00:34:43.291
It then dropped to three fifty two.

00:34:43.311 --> 00:34:44.992
OK, well,

00:34:45.032 --> 00:34:47.215
the median went from four twenty eight to

00:34:47.255 --> 00:34:49.338
two seventy.

00:34:49.358 --> 00:34:49.757
So let's.

00:34:52.847 --> 00:34:54.628
Let's play with the model for a for

00:34:54.668 --> 00:34:55.228
a second.

00:34:58.148 --> 00:34:59.769
If a price drops from five,

00:34:59.809 --> 00:35:05.092
to hold on, what was that number again?

00:35:05.751 --> 00:35:08.773
Got too many things going on a DD

00:35:08.813 --> 00:35:18.918
taken over Oh, to three over five years.

00:35:20.818 --> 00:35:23.240
what is the rate of decline and this

00:35:23.320 --> 00:35:26.864
is in the hundred thousand range in king

00:35:26.903 --> 00:35:32.228
county how much did prices drop let's just

00:35:32.248 --> 00:35:33.429
have it do the math for us real

00:35:33.469 --> 00:35:36.992
quick the problem is prices were dropping

00:35:37.032 --> 00:35:41.375
so rapidly and no one had equity and

00:35:41.434 --> 00:35:43.817
no one had savings and unemployment was

00:35:43.856 --> 00:35:45.938
massively rising and the foreclosure rate

00:35:45.978 --> 00:35:48.280
was massively rising there was so much

00:35:48.440 --> 00:35:49.021
inventory

00:35:50.769 --> 00:35:53.492
Let me show you King County months of

00:35:53.532 --> 00:35:53.891
supply.

00:35:54.592 --> 00:35:55.012
There we go.

00:35:56.893 --> 00:35:57.594
So right now,

00:35:57.614 --> 00:35:59.135
you're at basically four point nine

00:35:59.175 --> 00:35:59.456
months,

00:36:00.137 --> 00:36:01.838
which means if no new homes came on

00:36:01.858 --> 00:36:03.659
the market in four point nine months,

00:36:04.358 --> 00:36:05.380
you'd be completely out.

00:36:06.320 --> 00:36:08.762
This is really the start of a of

00:36:08.802 --> 00:36:09.983
a buyer's market.

00:36:10.963 --> 00:36:12.804
The old school way of looking at it

00:36:12.864 --> 00:36:14.666
was to say below six months is a

00:36:14.726 --> 00:36:16.586
seller's market above six months is a

00:36:16.646 --> 00:36:17.228
buyer's market.

00:36:18.233 --> 00:36:19.255
I would argue, though,

00:36:19.295 --> 00:36:21.795
because the industry got moving so faster

00:36:21.835 --> 00:36:22.336
in COVID,

00:36:22.536 --> 00:36:25.998
I would say above three point eight months

00:36:26.059 --> 00:36:27.400
is the start of a buyer's market.

00:36:28.079 --> 00:36:28.260
Now,

00:36:28.300 --> 00:36:29.521
we don't have to get into the real

00:36:29.561 --> 00:36:30.221
buyer's market,

00:36:30.862 --> 00:36:32.862
but we're at four point nine.

00:36:34.275 --> 00:36:34.494
I mean,

00:36:34.534 --> 00:36:37.956
we peaked at eleven point four in two

00:36:37.976 --> 00:36:38.815
thousand nine.

00:36:39.295 --> 00:36:41.956
That's almost a year's worth of inventory.

00:36:42.737 --> 00:36:44.057
At one point, ladies and gentlemen,

00:36:44.197 --> 00:36:46.458
I had one hundred and forty four active

00:36:46.518 --> 00:36:50.018
listings and I had two hundred more short

00:36:50.039 --> 00:36:51.920
sales and foreclosures coming down the

00:36:51.980 --> 00:36:54.239
pipe behind it.

00:36:54.280 --> 00:36:58.101
On average right now, we carry, you know,

00:36:58.181 --> 00:36:59.822
somewhere around twenty.

00:37:00.773 --> 00:37:01.094
Okay,

00:37:01.873 --> 00:37:04.235
so you can see how many multiples of

00:37:04.315 --> 00:37:08.175
times bigger that was.

00:37:08.195 --> 00:37:09.936
So the annual rate of decline during that

00:37:09.976 --> 00:37:12.297
time was seven point eight percent per

00:37:12.338 --> 00:37:14.097
year and thirty three percent.

00:37:14.717 --> 00:37:16.759
That is massive.

00:37:17.478 --> 00:37:19.119
And there were places inside the market

00:37:19.139 --> 00:37:20.840
where you saw forty percent drops and

00:37:20.960 --> 00:37:22.501
fifty percent drops because I just showed

00:37:22.521 --> 00:37:23.380
you the whole market.

00:37:24.041 --> 00:37:26.402
Are there maybe outlying areas or pockets

00:37:26.442 --> 00:37:28.101
in that that got worse during that time

00:37:28.983 --> 00:37:29.362
frame?

00:37:29.382 --> 00:37:30.003
Absolutely.

00:37:31.760 --> 00:37:33.222
So, Scotty Tuhati,

00:37:33.541 --> 00:37:36.324
that was my ADD going off the deep

00:37:36.403 --> 00:37:40.405
end about TARP and banks getting bailed

00:37:40.487 --> 00:37:40.626
out.

00:37:41.086 --> 00:37:44.728
But they kind of had to because this

00:37:44.809 --> 00:37:47.530
number was going to get out of control

00:37:47.871 --> 00:37:48.711
if they didn't.

00:37:51.588 --> 00:37:53.610
um i'm in tech and i was on

00:37:53.630 --> 00:37:57.452
the market for two million plus we've had

00:37:57.512 --> 00:37:59.534
two mass layoffs this year my entire team

00:37:59.554 --> 00:38:02.416
in seattle got decimated i survive but i'm

00:38:02.476 --> 00:38:03.978
no longer looking for a bigger house

00:38:06.612 --> 00:38:08.394
One, I'm very sorry to hear that.

00:38:08.994 --> 00:38:10.596
Two, good job.

00:38:10.856 --> 00:38:12.677
And what I mean by good job is

00:38:12.978 --> 00:38:13.878
you survived.

00:38:14.719 --> 00:38:16.721
One thing I do think that also tech

00:38:16.760 --> 00:38:20.103
is going through is, you know,

00:38:20.143 --> 00:38:22.405
looking at that third year fixed debt,

00:38:23.244 --> 00:38:24.706
when everything was really cheap,

00:38:25.586 --> 00:38:26.807
you know, right here,

00:38:27.568 --> 00:38:29.829
tech also started massively hiring and

00:38:30.130 --> 00:38:31.690
over hiring during that process.

00:38:31.710 --> 00:38:34.492
So they over blew up their balance sheets

00:38:34.873 --> 00:38:35.434
with people.

00:38:36.675 --> 00:38:38.817
And now part of what's happening is, yeah,

00:38:38.836 --> 00:38:41.237
they want to blame AI because it sounds

00:38:41.478 --> 00:38:43.818
sexy, because it's a boogeyman.

00:38:44.097 --> 00:38:46.099
But I actually think when debt was really

00:38:46.179 --> 00:38:49.119
cheap, they were just overhiring too.

00:38:49.579 --> 00:38:52.820
And that overhiring is now some of that

00:38:52.860 --> 00:38:54.302
is being trimmed away.

00:38:54.661 --> 00:38:57.362
But some of these cuts are just absolutely

00:38:57.402 --> 00:38:59.423
painful.

00:38:59.463 --> 00:39:01.244
Some of my other friends that are in

00:39:01.503 --> 00:39:03.425
tech have been sharing similar stories

00:39:03.445 --> 00:39:03.744
with me.

00:39:05.713 --> 00:39:07.574
about how they're having to work harder

00:39:07.693 --> 00:39:12.356
and longer to justify and that there are

00:39:12.536 --> 00:39:17.119
massive demands being put on them.

00:39:18.340 --> 00:39:19.760
Anton, if I'm paying thirty one,

00:39:19.800 --> 00:39:21.340
forty one in rent and we want to

00:39:21.380 --> 00:39:21.740
buy,

00:39:21.760 --> 00:39:23.681
but this market is fluctuating like it is,

00:39:24.161 --> 00:39:25.563
we've never bought a home before.

00:39:26.023 --> 00:39:28.023
Should we see what we qualify for in

00:39:28.123 --> 00:39:33.186
your experience?

00:39:33.427 --> 00:39:34.507
SK Ryan.

00:39:35.898 --> 00:39:36.559
Skyron?

00:39:38.320 --> 00:39:39.159
It's always hard to tell.

00:39:39.239 --> 00:39:41.880
So let's go with SK Ryan.

00:39:42.780 --> 00:39:44.820
SK Ryan, I absolutely would.

00:39:45.201 --> 00:39:48.362
So one, you always have to understand,

00:39:48.842 --> 00:39:49.822
I'm a real estate guy.

00:39:50.121 --> 00:39:51.802
It's where the majority of my holdings

00:39:51.902 --> 00:39:52.003
are.

00:39:52.023 --> 00:39:53.742
It's what we buy and invest in.

00:39:53.802 --> 00:39:55.103
It's what we sell every day.

00:39:55.623 --> 00:39:57.983
So you're asking the guy whose product,

00:39:58.023 --> 00:39:58.963
should you go buy it?

00:39:58.983 --> 00:40:00.625
Well, the answer to me is yes,

00:40:00.664 --> 00:40:01.085
of course.

00:40:01.425 --> 00:40:02.405
But let me caveat this.

00:40:03.603 --> 00:40:08.628
let me show a couple reasons so in

00:40:08.648 --> 00:40:12.610
let me throw some data up here we're

00:40:12.630 --> 00:40:20.615
gonna look at the um closed sales no

00:40:20.635 --> 00:40:21.856
let's not look at closed sales what should

00:40:21.876 --> 00:40:23.818
we be looking at let's look at sales

00:40:23.858 --> 00:40:28.001
prices that'll work so when the market

00:40:28.061 --> 00:40:28.521
peaked in

00:40:30.525 --> 00:40:32.668
So King County is literally July.

00:40:33.327 --> 00:40:35.429
What's funny is Snohomish County is June.

00:40:37.291 --> 00:40:38.833
So when King County peaked in July,

00:40:39.213 --> 00:40:44.918
it trended down until basically February

00:40:45.217 --> 00:40:47.519
of, all right,

00:40:47.559 --> 00:40:49.001
let's do some simple Arlington math

00:40:49.021 --> 00:40:49.420
together.

00:40:50.742 --> 00:40:54.324
Seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve,

00:40:54.625 --> 00:40:54.945
five.

00:40:55.146 --> 00:40:56.387
Cool, we're on the same page.

00:40:56.447 --> 00:40:58.347
So it went down for approximately five

00:40:58.367 --> 00:40:58.668
years.

00:40:59.521 --> 00:40:59.802
Well,

00:41:00.121 --> 00:41:01.742
what we saw was we saw the market

00:41:01.822 --> 00:41:03.804
peak in twenty twenty two and then just

00:41:03.824 --> 00:41:04.905
kind of move sideways.

00:41:05.525 --> 00:41:06.565
Let's do the same math.

00:41:07.186 --> 00:41:09.708
Twenty three, twenty four, twenty five,

00:41:09.847 --> 00:41:12.068
twenty six, twenty seven, five.

00:41:13.269 --> 00:41:15.670
Could we be nearing the end of a

00:41:15.731 --> 00:41:16.811
real estate cycle?

00:41:17.952 --> 00:41:18.572
Probably.

00:41:19.733 --> 00:41:21.233
Do I have a crystal ball?

00:41:21.735 --> 00:41:21.934
No.

00:41:23.492 --> 00:41:26.115
Are my buyers getting smoking deals right

00:41:26.175 --> 00:41:26.416
now?

00:41:26.737 --> 00:41:27.297
Oh, yeah.

00:41:31.141 --> 00:41:32.724
One of the young men on our team,

00:41:33.644 --> 00:41:34.465
his name is Sawyer.

00:41:34.746 --> 00:41:36.989
He's literally like through four walls

00:41:37.009 --> 00:41:37.369
that way.

00:41:38.978 --> 00:41:39.938
He is in his twenties.

00:41:40.259 --> 00:41:41.280
He just got engaged.

00:41:42.380 --> 00:41:45.661
And in a market that's really hard,

00:41:46.400 --> 00:41:48.442
his income is going up right now.

00:41:48.742 --> 00:41:49.021
Why?

00:41:49.061 --> 00:41:50.501
Because he's showing up every day and

00:41:50.541 --> 00:41:52.523
putting in the hard work and doing what's

00:41:52.563 --> 00:41:53.043
necessary,

00:41:53.103 --> 00:41:56.483
performing at a way above average level.

00:41:57.724 --> 00:41:58.324
Yesterday,

00:41:58.403 --> 00:42:00.605
him and his fiance closed on their first

00:42:00.644 --> 00:42:00.864
home.

00:42:03.965 --> 00:42:06.505
This is my heart of coal warming up

00:42:06.726 --> 00:42:08.286
a little bit because of that.

00:42:09.746 --> 00:42:11.807
Why would a young man in the industry

00:42:12.568 --> 00:42:13.849
buy a home today?

00:42:14.510 --> 00:42:16.010
Well, he was able to get,

00:42:17.773 --> 00:42:18.813
remember he's a real estate broker.

00:42:18.833 --> 00:42:20.353
So he got paid to buy the house.

00:42:21.574 --> 00:42:23.956
He got his interest rate bought down.

00:42:25.358 --> 00:42:27.259
He got all the contingencies that he

00:42:27.278 --> 00:42:27.619
wanted.

00:42:27.818 --> 00:42:30.902
He got the house below market and he

00:42:30.922 --> 00:42:32.101
got all of his closing costs paid.

00:42:32.262 --> 00:42:33.503
So the very first step,

00:42:33.762 --> 00:42:35.644
whether you're thinking about today or

00:42:35.704 --> 00:42:36.985
sometime, even the next five years,

00:42:38.034 --> 00:42:39.396
Chat with an amazing lender.

00:42:39.576 --> 00:42:42.277
If you need one, SK Ryan,

00:42:42.938 --> 00:42:44.199
we can totally get one over to you.

00:42:44.559 --> 00:42:45.900
But you chat with an amazing lender.

00:42:46.900 --> 00:42:49.623
You'd put the numbers together with that

00:42:49.682 --> 00:42:52.264
lender and you figure out, all right,

00:42:52.545 --> 00:42:53.744
maybe there's a couple things I need to

00:42:53.764 --> 00:42:54.565
fix on my credit.

00:42:55.706 --> 00:42:56.306
Maybe there's not.

00:42:56.567 --> 00:42:57.847
Maybe I need to save up more money.

00:42:58.148 --> 00:42:59.789
But you figure out how to properly

00:42:59.849 --> 00:43:01.610
position yourself in the market to

00:43:01.751 --> 00:43:04.873
maximize the balance of your wants

00:43:06.226 --> 00:43:07.726
needs, and the price.

00:43:08.106 --> 00:43:10.407
It's a weird little Venn diagram of want,

00:43:10.467 --> 00:43:10.788
need,

00:43:10.927 --> 00:43:16.969
and price where price outweighs want and

00:43:17.009 --> 00:43:20.150
need because price turns into the monthly

00:43:20.190 --> 00:43:20.530
payment.

00:43:21.650 --> 00:43:23.630
Another interesting thing that a lot of

00:43:23.670 --> 00:43:26.092
people forget when they are purchasing a

00:43:26.172 --> 00:43:28.293
home is all of a sudden now you

00:43:28.373 --> 00:43:31.074
also get a big write-off because the

00:43:31.094 --> 00:43:32.233
government only likes two people.

00:43:32.954 --> 00:43:33.914
P.S., if you didn't know this,

00:43:33.994 --> 00:43:35.295
I'm dropping dimes right now.

00:43:36.291 --> 00:43:37.791
The government likes two people.

00:43:38.253 --> 00:43:39.554
Who do you think those two people are?

00:43:40.514 --> 00:43:41.275
Well, I'm going to tell you.

00:43:42.036 --> 00:43:44.777
They are business owners and homeowners.

00:43:45.838 --> 00:43:49.221
That is the only segments of the

00:43:49.262 --> 00:43:51.722
population they give any tax breaks to.

00:43:52.764 --> 00:43:55.447
Everyone else doesn't really get any.

00:43:56.547 --> 00:43:58.048
What they say is they say, hey,

00:43:58.068 --> 00:43:58.969
you get to write off all of the

00:43:59.028 --> 00:43:59.349
interest.

00:44:00.161 --> 00:44:01.123
You get right off the interest and the

00:44:01.163 --> 00:44:01.543
taxes.

00:44:02.202 --> 00:44:04.485
So every year you get a nice little

00:44:04.664 --> 00:44:05.164
write-off.

00:44:05.804 --> 00:44:06.186
SK Ryan,

00:44:06.206 --> 00:44:07.286
if there's something we can do to help,

00:44:07.646 --> 00:44:10.668
hit us up at rsg.com or askanton.com.

00:44:11.188 --> 00:44:12.168
Both of those websites,

00:44:12.188 --> 00:44:14.070
we are happy to help.

00:44:14.411 --> 00:44:15.291
Once again, no pressure.

00:44:15.992 --> 00:44:18.233
But it looks like if this cycle is

00:44:18.273 --> 00:44:20.173
repeating itself,

00:44:20.193 --> 00:44:21.074
we're probably near the end.

00:44:21.675 --> 00:44:23.675
Because I want you to ask yourself this.

00:44:23.795 --> 00:44:27.237
If you open up TradingView, P.S.

00:44:27.257 --> 00:44:28.298
I also like the stock market.

00:44:28.338 --> 00:44:29.659
That's why I got my little TradingView

00:44:29.719 --> 00:44:29.940
open.

00:44:31.465 --> 00:44:33.786
You come over here, you go to Brent,

00:44:34.867 --> 00:44:36.427
aka Brent Crude.

00:44:37.989 --> 00:44:40.990
So Brent, you know, this is pre-Iran,

00:44:41.851 --> 00:44:42.871
you know, in the sixties.

00:44:44.032 --> 00:44:44.733
Oh no.

00:44:46.134 --> 00:44:46.693
Technical term.

00:44:46.893 --> 00:44:47.695
Oh no.

00:44:49.615 --> 00:44:51.657
Shoots up to one fifteen.

00:44:52.157 --> 00:44:53.177
You know, we're getting a peace deal.

00:44:53.458 --> 00:44:54.378
We're not getting a peace deal.

00:44:54.438 --> 00:44:55.338
Not getting a peace deal.

00:44:55.739 --> 00:44:56.179
Boom.

00:44:56.500 --> 00:44:57.561
But we're sitting right here.

00:44:58.541 --> 00:45:00.882
As soon as this goes down,

00:45:02.096 --> 00:45:03.317
The ten-year treasury,

00:45:03.356 --> 00:45:04.496
that's not the ten-year treasury.

00:45:04.516 --> 00:45:04.918
Where'd it go?

00:45:05.518 --> 00:45:09.721
The ten-year treasury will go down.

00:45:10.141 --> 00:45:12.561
The ten-year treasury heading into the

00:45:12.601 --> 00:45:15.704
beginning of this year, right there,

00:45:15.744 --> 00:45:18.226
look at that, three point nine six.

00:45:19.365 --> 00:45:20.827
When it was three point nine six,

00:45:21.106 --> 00:45:23.449
thirty-year fixed debt was under six

00:45:23.489 --> 00:45:23.889
percent.

00:45:24.329 --> 00:45:26.931
The market was lighting on freaking fire.

00:45:27.880 --> 00:45:29.282
to start this year.

00:45:29.563 --> 00:45:29.902
And I was like,

00:45:30.164 --> 00:45:32.726
twenty twenty six is going to be better

00:45:32.746 --> 00:45:33.628
than twenty five.

00:45:33.668 --> 00:45:34.489
Let's go kill it.

00:45:35.590 --> 00:45:35.990
But

00:45:37.335 --> 00:45:39.775
The Iran war was not on my bingo

00:45:39.795 --> 00:45:40.036
card.

00:45:40.596 --> 00:45:42.476
So then, boom, it happens.

00:45:42.496 --> 00:45:43.396
The tenure shoots up.

00:45:44.117 --> 00:45:46.277
You can take this number and essentially

00:45:46.436 --> 00:45:49.038
add two percent to it or two hundred

00:45:49.097 --> 00:45:49.838
basis points.

00:45:50.458 --> 00:45:52.458
That's basically third year fixed debt

00:45:53.358 --> 00:45:54.998
with thirty with his being so high right

00:45:55.018 --> 00:45:55.239
now.

00:45:56.059 --> 00:45:59.400
It causes buyer activity to slow down.

00:46:00.099 --> 00:46:02.521
Buyer activity slows down when interest

00:46:02.541 --> 00:46:03.800
rates are above six and a half.

00:46:04.777 --> 00:46:06.478
and it picks up below six and a

00:46:06.518 --> 00:46:06.699
half.

00:46:06.760 --> 00:46:09.302
This is so clear in the data.

00:46:09.802 --> 00:46:12.284
So once rates come down,

00:46:12.324 --> 00:46:13.585
the market will just go right back to

00:46:13.644 --> 00:46:15.706
picking up because fundamentally we're

00:46:15.746 --> 00:46:16.567
behind on housing.

00:46:16.728 --> 00:46:18.028
We're about a quarter million units

00:46:18.068 --> 00:46:18.548
behind.

00:46:19.530 --> 00:46:23.092
I go get building permits.

00:46:24.012 --> 00:46:25.494
I do land development projects.

00:46:25.655 --> 00:46:27.175
I can tell you they are miserable.

00:46:27.335 --> 00:46:28.956
They are brain damage.

00:46:30.918 --> 00:46:32.239
I'm just a glutton for punishment.

00:46:33.722 --> 00:46:35.023
And so we keep doing them.

00:46:35.844 --> 00:46:39.105
But what's happening is there's not enough

00:46:39.144 --> 00:46:40.905
supply coming in the future.

00:46:41.925 --> 00:46:44.266
When you look at the info sparks and

00:46:44.286 --> 00:46:45.347
you look at the closed sales,

00:46:45.666 --> 00:46:47.088
look how low the closed sales are there

00:46:47.108 --> 00:46:47.728
in King County.

00:46:48.188 --> 00:46:50.568
When this gap starts to come back,

00:46:51.590 --> 00:46:52.190
watch out.

00:46:52.309 --> 00:46:55.010
Price is going up, ladies and gentlemen.

00:47:00.554 --> 00:47:01.556
Yes, absolutely.

00:47:01.576 --> 00:47:02.976
Start the ball rolling to see what you

00:47:02.996 --> 00:47:04.057
qualify for.

00:47:04.217 --> 00:47:05.239
Eight hundred credit score.

00:47:05.318 --> 00:47:06.621
You're gangster.

00:47:06.661 --> 00:47:07.440
That's awesome.

00:47:08.501 --> 00:47:10.844
What we'll do is we've done other episodes

00:47:10.923 --> 00:47:12.766
with my friend Cody Touche.

00:47:13.427 --> 00:47:15.668
I will also drop Cody's contact

00:47:15.768 --> 00:47:18.190
information in there.

00:47:18.630 --> 00:47:21.134
Let me show you his episode.

00:47:22.534 --> 00:47:26.177
Cody did a phenomenal job talking about

00:47:26.458 --> 00:47:26.958
this.

00:47:29.298 --> 00:47:30.960
And videos.

00:47:30.980 --> 00:47:32.121
Look, there we're live.

00:47:32.280 --> 00:47:33.141
Meet Kevin.

00:47:33.181 --> 00:47:34.181
He did good.

00:47:34.722 --> 00:47:35.963
Right here two weeks ago,

00:47:36.003 --> 00:47:37.344
this episode with Cody.

00:47:38.405 --> 00:47:40.346
You can give Cody Touche a call.

00:47:40.385 --> 00:47:41.666
He's going to do an awesome job to

00:47:41.686 --> 00:47:42.608
be able to help you out.

00:47:43.068 --> 00:47:45.108
He's done tons and tons of loans for

00:47:45.208 --> 00:47:45.389
us.

00:47:46.409 --> 00:47:47.490
Is it still a buyer's market?

00:47:47.630 --> 00:47:49.092
Oh, yeah, it's a buyer's market.

00:47:51.612 --> 00:47:53.454
Trivia Loan Eleven.

00:47:54.375 --> 00:47:55.757
It is absolutely a buyer's market.

00:47:56.018 --> 00:47:58.601
You can see that in the data in

00:47:58.681 --> 00:48:00.103
the months of supply of pending.

00:48:00.664 --> 00:48:05.371
Let me show it to you real quick.

00:48:07.976 --> 00:48:08.657
Look at that rise.

00:48:10.802 --> 00:48:11.382
All you got to do is look at

00:48:11.442 --> 00:48:11.623
oil.

00:48:12.402 --> 00:48:13.543
Oh, wait a second.

00:48:13.884 --> 00:48:16.585
Does the oil and the supply graph look

00:48:16.806 --> 00:48:17.326
similar?

00:48:17.885 --> 00:48:18.306
Hmm.

00:48:18.927 --> 00:48:22.148
Are they rising together because the rise

00:48:22.208 --> 00:48:25.771
in oil is inflationary and it causes

00:48:25.931 --> 00:48:27.032
interest rates to go up?

00:48:27.052 --> 00:48:29.172
See, look, trending up right there.

00:48:31.054 --> 00:48:31.295
Yes.

00:48:32.074 --> 00:48:34.317
So what I think is going to happen,

00:48:35.476 --> 00:48:36.398
Anton has no crystal ball.

00:48:37.472 --> 00:48:40.253
But Anton has looked at this freaking data

00:48:40.293 --> 00:48:41.215
since two thousand three.

00:48:41.996 --> 00:48:43.197
I went to school to be a biochemist.

00:48:43.797 --> 00:48:44.637
I got into real estate.

00:48:44.737 --> 00:48:45.759
I just thought it was the thing you're

00:48:45.778 --> 00:48:46.458
supposed to do.

00:48:46.639 --> 00:48:47.840
We're supposed to do the nerdy stuff and

00:48:47.860 --> 00:48:51.623
look at all the data.

00:48:51.844 --> 00:48:53.025
And when you look at this data,

00:48:53.045 --> 00:48:54.505
you start to see those patterns.

00:48:55.847 --> 00:48:56.847
And yes,

00:48:56.947 --> 00:48:59.510
I do think that it's so is it

00:48:59.530 --> 00:49:00.931
going to be a buyer's market in twenty

00:49:00.951 --> 00:49:01.431
twenty seven?

00:49:02.681 --> 00:49:04.463
If the conflict with Iran is still going

00:49:04.563 --> 00:49:07.164
on and rates stay higher and the Fed

00:49:07.204 --> 00:49:09.186
hikes, then yes, absolutely it will.

00:49:10.166 --> 00:49:12.768
If we get a settlement and rates come

00:49:12.789 --> 00:49:14.650
down, then no, it won't.

00:49:15.449 --> 00:49:16.710
But the next question is like, well,

00:49:16.811 --> 00:49:18.192
when is the best time to buy?

00:49:18.391 --> 00:49:19.652
Let's look at the data.

00:49:19.992 --> 00:49:21.693
The data shows us the best time to

00:49:21.713 --> 00:49:21.994
buy.

00:49:22.434 --> 00:49:23.375
So we can go look at what's called

00:49:23.394 --> 00:49:25.597
the percent of original list price.

00:49:26.077 --> 00:49:27.177
See, there's too much data.

00:49:27.418 --> 00:49:28.097
There we go.

00:49:29.059 --> 00:49:30.219
So this is just the last three years.

00:49:31.427 --> 00:49:34.710
The lower the number, the better here.

00:49:34.971 --> 00:49:36.452
The lower the number, the better.

00:49:38.713 --> 00:49:41.034
What this means is if we look at

00:49:41.114 --> 00:49:42.115
the peak this year,

00:49:42.936 --> 00:49:44.898
March of twenty twenty six in King County

00:49:44.918 --> 00:49:48.061
was ninety eight point nine percent.

00:49:49.101 --> 00:49:51.603
What that means is it means the average

00:49:51.623 --> 00:49:53.925
buyer got one point one percent off of

00:49:53.985 --> 00:49:55.706
the list price.

00:49:55.806 --> 00:49:56.286
OK, well,

00:49:56.327 --> 00:49:58.548
you want to go when the when the

00:49:58.588 --> 00:49:59.829
data shows you can get the most.

00:50:00.731 --> 00:50:01.210
Oh, look at that.

00:50:01.251 --> 00:50:04.972
That's December, December, January,

00:50:06.153 --> 00:50:07.655
December, January.

00:50:08.114 --> 00:50:10.036
So last December and January,

00:50:10.135 --> 00:50:11.597
ninety five point five and ninety five

00:50:11.637 --> 00:50:12.036
point six.

00:50:12.056 --> 00:50:12.577
In other words,

00:50:12.597 --> 00:50:14.097
the average buyer got almost five percent

00:50:14.139 --> 00:50:14.898
off the purchase price.

00:50:15.940 --> 00:50:16.760
Last month,

00:50:17.740 --> 00:50:19.240
the average buyer got three point eight

00:50:19.280 --> 00:50:20.481
percent off the purchase price.

00:50:20.922 --> 00:50:23.164
So what I tell you is,

00:50:23.364 --> 00:50:24.384
do you want to wait all the way

00:50:24.443 --> 00:50:25.324
till spring?

00:50:26.137 --> 00:50:28.398
When everyone's going to hop in and this

00:50:28.458 --> 00:50:29.960
graph is going to trend in an upward

00:50:30.000 --> 00:50:31.239
direction and you're going to have to pay

00:50:31.260 --> 00:50:31.740
more for a home,

00:50:32.260 --> 00:50:33.661
if your goal is to buy one in

00:50:33.702 --> 00:50:34.961
the next six months,

00:50:35.442 --> 00:50:36.023
I would do it now.

00:50:36.163 --> 00:50:40.585
Because look, every spring market,

00:50:40.644 --> 00:50:41.605
see how it goes up.

00:50:42.045 --> 00:50:43.706
The historical average is about ninety

00:50:43.746 --> 00:50:44.686
eight point six.

00:50:45.686 --> 00:50:47.887
So see how like right here in twenty

00:50:47.907 --> 00:50:48.989
four, that's one hundred and two.

00:50:49.028 --> 00:50:49.789
That's bidding wars.

00:50:50.869 --> 00:50:51.969
Let me go back five years so you

00:50:51.989 --> 00:50:52.490
can see this.

00:50:53.429 --> 00:50:53.949
Look at that.

00:50:54.050 --> 00:50:55.451
That's twenty twenty two right before the

00:50:55.490 --> 00:50:56.331
Fed raises rates.

00:50:56.351 --> 00:50:58.692
That's one hundred and eleven point four.

00:50:59.052 --> 00:51:00.192
That's massive bidding wars.

00:51:00.472 --> 00:51:01.813
This is when the people were giving away

00:51:01.853 --> 00:51:04.494
the Tesla's and the fifty thousand dollar

00:51:04.554 --> 00:51:06.293
nonrefundable earnest monies and waiving

00:51:06.333 --> 00:51:06.775
everything.

00:51:08.135 --> 00:51:09.235
This right here is more normal.

00:51:09.255 --> 00:51:10.476
Let me show you on a on a

00:51:10.516 --> 00:51:13.396
bigger time frame.

00:51:13.416 --> 00:51:14.976
This band, you know,

00:51:15.036 --> 00:51:16.557
kind of in that hundred and ninety five,

00:51:16.597 --> 00:51:17.398
that's more normal.

00:51:17.438 --> 00:51:18.539
When we get above that,

00:51:18.559 --> 00:51:19.418
that's bidding wars.

00:51:21.563 --> 00:51:23.364
Okay, so this year, great.

00:51:24.405 --> 00:51:25.625
All right, what's the question next?

00:51:25.664 --> 00:51:26.846
Sam's GoPro.

00:51:27.346 --> 00:51:30.047
How often does access to backup water

00:51:30.088 --> 00:51:31.608
supply like wells, pools,

00:51:31.708 --> 00:51:35.210
and springs come up with buyers of yours?

00:51:35.349 --> 00:51:36.971
Am I just a water nerd?

00:51:36.990 --> 00:51:38.672
Sam, you are a water nerd, sir,

00:51:38.751 --> 00:51:39.452
and you should be,

00:51:39.552 --> 00:51:41.112
and I freaking love it.

00:51:43.273 --> 00:51:45.934
One of my friends is building out in

00:51:45.974 --> 00:51:46.695
the San Juans.

00:51:47.782 --> 00:51:50.284
There is a natural pond on the property.

00:51:50.644 --> 00:51:54.909
The natural pond is set as just in

00:51:54.949 --> 00:51:57.871
case of fire.

00:51:57.911 --> 00:52:01.034
I do believe, okay?

00:52:01.074 --> 00:52:02.916
So you remember when they were talking

00:52:02.936 --> 00:52:08.300
about this idea that data is the new

00:52:08.521 --> 00:52:08.862
oil, right?

00:52:10.213 --> 00:52:11.193
They're talking about this idea,

00:52:11.333 --> 00:52:12.914
data is the new oil.

00:52:14.514 --> 00:52:16.554
Back in the early two thousands,

00:52:16.655 --> 00:52:19.094
late two thousands,

00:52:19.115 --> 00:52:27.137
I think water is more valuable than oil.

00:52:28.137 --> 00:52:29.097
And if you look at this,

00:52:29.938 --> 00:52:31.119
just to give you an example,

00:52:31.699 --> 00:52:33.119
how much do you pay for a bottle

00:52:33.159 --> 00:52:33.579
of water?

00:52:34.199 --> 00:52:34.880
A lot of money.

00:52:35.579 --> 00:52:37.179
Cheapest you get them is like sixty cents

00:52:37.199 --> 00:52:37.739
to a dollar.

00:52:37.780 --> 00:52:39.380
At the airport, you pay like five bucks.

00:52:40.474 --> 00:52:42.797
That's like five bucks for sixteen ounces.

00:52:43.436 --> 00:52:44.458
That's insanity.

00:52:45.338 --> 00:52:45.699
Also,

00:52:45.778 --> 00:52:48.882
I think that we have to increase our

00:52:49.581 --> 00:52:52.364
water cleaning abilities.

00:52:52.644 --> 00:52:54.146
We need better technology there.

00:52:54.806 --> 00:52:55.766
In Washington State,

00:52:55.786 --> 00:52:57.407
you can look up what's called the Hearst

00:52:57.527 --> 00:53:01.050
decision.

00:53:01.170 --> 00:53:04.594
Hearst decision.

00:53:04.653 --> 00:53:05.735
In fact, it's spelled decision.

00:53:06.516 --> 00:53:06.916
Decision.

00:53:09.673 --> 00:53:16.878
decision water oh that's because I spelt

00:53:16.918 --> 00:53:20.400
it wrong so Sam this is something you

00:53:20.420 --> 00:53:23.844
should check out the Hearst decision in

00:53:26.023 --> 00:53:30.349
required counties to independently verify

00:53:30.369 --> 00:53:32.331
new permit exempt well water.

00:53:33.130 --> 00:53:34.793
And what this did was this caused a

00:53:34.853 --> 00:53:44.143
lot of issues in the Skagit Valley Basin.

00:53:46.481 --> 00:53:49.543
in the Skagit Valley Basin because of all

00:53:49.583 --> 00:53:51.744
the water that's up there and you weren't

00:53:51.784 --> 00:53:53.465
allowed to drill wells and that even came

00:53:53.525 --> 00:53:54.586
up into Snohomish County.

00:53:55.327 --> 00:53:56.568
I think there's going to be more of

00:53:56.628 --> 00:53:58.349
that in the future.

00:53:58.389 --> 00:54:00.869
So no, I don't, one, yes,

00:54:00.909 --> 00:54:01.731
we don't get a lot of it,

00:54:02.251 --> 00:54:02.911
but two,

00:54:03.050 --> 00:54:04.552
I think you're gonna hear more and more

00:54:04.592 --> 00:54:05.833
of it in the future.

00:54:06.793 --> 00:54:07.293
Three,

00:54:07.414 --> 00:54:09.554
we've even done things like rain catchment

00:54:09.594 --> 00:54:12.657
systems and other cool things like that.

00:54:12.876 --> 00:54:13.797
All right, ladies and gentlemen,

00:54:15.597 --> 00:54:18.260
we we let the squirrels the add take

00:54:18.400 --> 00:54:20.581
over and the comments take over i wanted

00:54:20.601 --> 00:54:25.282
to see what oh a couple more points

00:54:25.342 --> 00:54:28.643
on ai ai is part of this massive

00:54:28.684 --> 00:54:30.344
inflation problem we're having right now

00:54:31.306 --> 00:54:32.525
we're having it because of tariffs we're

00:54:32.545 --> 00:54:35.286
having it because of oil but this cap

00:54:35.568 --> 00:54:38.409
x build out is so big that it's

00:54:38.668 --> 00:54:41.550
literally like just robbing everything let

00:54:41.570 --> 00:54:42.490
me give you an example i'm just going

00:54:42.510 --> 00:54:42.951
to reach over here

00:54:45.329 --> 00:54:46.289
This is.

00:54:47.190 --> 00:54:49.431
Sixteen gigs of memory.

00:54:50.351 --> 00:54:51.391
And I bought.

00:54:51.751 --> 00:54:53.271
Sixty four to replace.

00:54:53.411 --> 00:54:54.472
The sixteen.

00:54:55.931 --> 00:54:57.291
That's sixty four.

00:54:57.692 --> 00:54:58.351
Cost.

00:54:59.072 --> 00:55:00.052
After a lot of searching.

00:55:00.132 --> 00:55:01.713
Using an AI bot to find me the

00:55:01.733 --> 00:55:02.012
best.

00:55:02.052 --> 00:55:02.733
And the cheapest.

00:55:03.552 --> 00:55:05.052
Cost me five hundred and twenty four

00:55:05.072 --> 00:55:05.393
dollars.

00:55:06.474 --> 00:55:07.574
A few years ago.

00:55:07.954 --> 00:55:09.873
That literally would have only cost me.

00:55:09.893 --> 00:55:10.873
Like a hundred and twenty bucks.

00:55:11.835 --> 00:55:12.175
Why?

00:55:12.574 --> 00:55:13.494
Because it is.

00:55:14.380 --> 00:55:15.900
There's so much demand.

00:55:15.960 --> 00:55:18.621
Look at like the the fifty ninety GPU.

00:55:19.561 --> 00:55:21.983
You can't even pick them up for video

00:55:22.023 --> 00:55:23.824
gamers and they're forty five hundred

00:55:23.864 --> 00:55:24.284
dollars.

00:55:24.364 --> 00:55:24.623
I mean,

00:55:24.664 --> 00:55:26.125
some of them on a resale are like

00:55:26.224 --> 00:55:27.405
six to seven grand.

00:55:27.985 --> 00:55:30.246
So this AI cap X build out is

00:55:30.286 --> 00:55:31.827
creating a lot of jobs and being

00:55:31.867 --> 00:55:32.427
inflationary.

00:55:35.909 --> 00:55:37.730
One of our amazing people that works here,

00:55:38.130 --> 00:55:41.690
their significant other is at SpaceX right

00:55:41.731 --> 00:55:41.911
now.

00:55:42.791 --> 00:55:45.512
And they were pulled out of Washington

00:55:45.552 --> 00:55:48.994
State to go help with Colossus with the

00:55:49.114 --> 00:55:50.856
next level of build-out.

00:55:51.516 --> 00:55:53.556
That's wild that they would fly people

00:55:53.597 --> 00:55:55.918
from here to there to work.

00:55:56.918 --> 00:55:58.039
So I think...

00:55:59.039 --> 00:56:00.679
AI is currently inflationary.

00:56:00.980 --> 00:56:02.980
I think AI will continue to expand the

00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:03.521
job market.

00:56:03.960 --> 00:56:05.141
I think there's going to be a point

00:56:05.221 --> 00:56:05.481
though,

00:56:05.940 --> 00:56:08.382
there's a dip in there somewhere where

00:56:08.402 --> 00:56:11.742
there's a skill mismatch to the job.

00:56:12.324 --> 00:56:13.483
Jobs will go down for a little bit,

00:56:13.543 --> 00:56:15.344
then they'll go up because I believe in

00:56:15.364 --> 00:56:17.224
the human ingenuity.

00:56:19.746 --> 00:56:20.985
And I believe that's going to create a

00:56:21.025 --> 00:56:24.648
lot of opportunities for us in the future.

00:56:25.208 --> 00:56:26.688
Isn't memory the same cost regardless of

00:56:26.708 --> 00:56:27.289
what state you're in?

00:56:27.309 --> 00:56:28.489
The cost of

00:56:29.786 --> 00:56:31.967
of living in washington does nothing yeah

00:56:32.007 --> 00:56:35.429
i know digital phoenix i agree with you

00:56:36.250 --> 00:56:39.710
so the cost of living in washington state

00:56:40.492 --> 00:56:46.934
cost of living washington state oh that's

00:56:46.974 --> 00:56:50.556
what i'm looking for holy toledo okay let

00:56:50.576 --> 00:56:51.076
me show you this

00:56:53.378 --> 00:56:56.699
fourth most expensive in the nation gas

00:56:56.739 --> 00:57:00.922
prices rent unfortunately what we're

00:57:00.942 --> 00:57:02.663
seeing there digital phoenix is we're

00:57:02.682 --> 00:57:06.063
seeing ideology come head to head with

00:57:06.164 --> 00:57:08.644
economic realities and we've got to fight

00:57:08.686 --> 00:57:10.045
and push back against that you got to

00:57:10.065 --> 00:57:13.807
say no to initiative the income tax on

00:57:13.867 --> 00:57:14.347
everyone

00:57:15.418 --> 00:57:16.818
You've got to call your local politicians

00:57:16.838 --> 00:57:18.039
and say they've got to build more houses.

00:57:18.498 --> 00:57:19.958
Otherwise, rents get too high.

00:57:20.278 --> 00:57:21.059
Housing is too high.

00:57:21.318 --> 00:57:23.139
And we don't need apartments,

00:57:23.539 --> 00:57:24.480
freaking townhomes.

00:57:25.059 --> 00:57:27.661
I want single-family homes, little fences,

00:57:27.760 --> 00:57:29.400
little backyards so they make the babies.

00:57:31.061 --> 00:57:31.342
Otherwise,

00:57:31.382 --> 00:57:33.402
we're losing them all to affordable places

00:57:33.442 --> 00:57:36.762
like Tennessee.

00:57:36.782 --> 00:57:38.782
Skagit County wasn't affected by HRSA.

00:57:38.802 --> 00:57:40.164
They were already limited by the tribal

00:57:40.184 --> 00:57:40.824
decision.

00:57:40.844 --> 00:57:40.884
Oh.

00:57:42.306 --> 00:57:44.168
Dan, you are ahead of me, sir.

00:57:45.268 --> 00:57:48.530
I did not know that as much.

00:57:49.110 --> 00:57:50.311
Now that you're saying it, though,

00:57:50.331 --> 00:57:52.251
that makes sense because my friend's

00:57:52.851 --> 00:57:54.552
development project off of three

00:57:54.612 --> 00:57:57.333
hundredths got stopped because of that.

00:57:57.353 --> 00:57:59.295
I assumed they were all tied together.

00:57:59.795 --> 00:58:02.577
I didn't realize that they were separate

00:58:02.617 --> 00:58:02.896
issues.

00:58:03.177 --> 00:58:04.777
But maybe what happened was the Hearst

00:58:04.818 --> 00:58:08.099
decision just over-exasperated or

00:58:08.139 --> 00:58:09.260
accelerated that.

00:58:11.563 --> 00:58:13.485
Thoughts on rural, farm,

00:58:13.525 --> 00:58:14.547
homestead development?

00:58:14.907 --> 00:58:15.208
Yes.

00:58:15.347 --> 00:58:17.429
Ooh.

00:58:17.489 --> 00:58:20.213
JH, my man.

00:58:20.333 --> 00:58:24.376
Okay, so one,

00:58:24.396 --> 00:58:26.940
we did that AI episode about...

00:58:29.081 --> 00:58:32.204
Where did it go?

00:58:32.244 --> 00:58:34.867
We did this AI episode about...

00:58:37.103 --> 00:58:37.543
Quincy.

00:58:38.384 --> 00:58:39.063
This one right here.

00:58:40.545 --> 00:58:42.085
And my family's from Quincy.

00:58:44.266 --> 00:58:44.686
Farmers.

00:58:45.327 --> 00:58:47.628
And about how AI is changing what's

00:58:47.668 --> 00:58:53.150
happening right there and how they're

00:58:53.911 --> 00:58:56.652
condemning a bunch of property to bring in

00:58:56.952 --> 00:58:58.052
massive amounts of power.

00:58:58.632 --> 00:58:59.813
But to go back to your question,

00:59:01.333 --> 00:59:02.815
the Puget Sound Regional Council

00:59:04.117 --> 00:59:07.659
here controls the major counties.

00:59:07.898 --> 00:59:13.782
And the PSRC controls Thurston, Pierce,

00:59:14.143 --> 00:59:17.023
King, Snohomish, Skagit, and Wadcombe,

00:59:17.063 --> 00:59:18.125
if I remember correctly.

00:59:18.704 --> 00:59:21.346
And they voted not to expand the urban

00:59:21.365 --> 00:59:21.987
growth area.

00:59:22.306 --> 00:59:23.768
And they said in the rural area,

00:59:23.827 --> 00:59:25.829
we want to take development from six

00:59:25.869 --> 00:59:27.730
percent to two percent.

00:59:30.764 --> 00:59:32.505
So if you got development and it goes

00:59:32.545 --> 00:59:34.929
from six percent to two percent,

00:59:35.168 --> 00:59:36.791
aka down by two thirds,

00:59:36.911 --> 00:59:39.454
do you think the value of that's going

00:59:39.494 --> 00:59:40.757
to go up in the future?

00:59:40.836 --> 00:59:41.597
Yes or yes?

00:59:42.639 --> 00:59:44.420
Can I get an amen from the background,

00:59:44.460 --> 00:59:45.463
please, ladies and gentlemen?

00:59:50.163 --> 00:59:51.443
So yes,

00:59:51.563 --> 00:59:54.507
if you want to put together a rural

00:59:54.547 --> 00:59:57.628
homestead, a farm, a property on acreage,

00:59:57.809 --> 00:59:59.630
any property on acreage for this matter,

01:00:00.451 --> 01:00:02.893
if the stupid government gets its way and

01:00:02.932 --> 01:00:05.054
they take that rural development down,

01:00:05.474 --> 01:00:07.516
all of the values go up.

01:00:08.137 --> 01:00:09.818
It's personally one of my current

01:00:09.938 --> 01:00:11.840
investment strategies I am working on

01:00:12.021 --> 01:00:12.641
right now.

01:00:12.701 --> 01:00:15.402
So I am spending my own capital on

01:00:15.523 --> 01:00:16.543
this today.

01:00:17.125 --> 01:00:18.385
So I agree with you.

01:00:20.670 --> 01:00:24.514
uh all right thank you for notifying us

01:00:24.534 --> 01:00:27.436
things are oh you know what i'm always

01:00:27.476 --> 01:00:29.317
happy to share what i'm seeing here in

01:00:29.356 --> 01:00:31.318
washington state what we're seeing in the

01:00:31.358 --> 01:00:33.699
data you are listeners our subscribers the

01:00:33.719 --> 01:00:35.101
people that hang out with me you make

01:00:35.141 --> 01:00:37.661
this possible every time you comment every

01:00:37.702 --> 01:00:39.202
time you share a video every time you

01:00:39.282 --> 01:00:41.585
hype a video or interact with us it

01:00:41.605 --> 01:00:43.565
allows us just to spread this even further

01:00:44.847 --> 01:00:45.987
i'm just a guy

01:00:47.007 --> 01:00:48.489
who grew up in Arlington,

01:00:49.108 --> 01:00:50.750
who lives in Snohomish County,

01:00:50.789 --> 01:00:53.150
who operates a bunch of small business in

01:00:53.210 --> 01:00:55.333
real estate, real estate investment,

01:00:55.552 --> 01:00:57.134
new construction, land development.

01:00:57.673 --> 01:00:59.855
And I just like sharing the data and

01:00:59.894 --> 01:01:01.536
my thoughts as to what's happening.

01:01:01.876 --> 01:01:02.817
Because when someone said,

01:01:02.916 --> 01:01:04.597
is tech really affecting the market?

01:01:04.617 --> 01:01:06.159
I was like, I believe it is,

01:01:06.179 --> 01:01:07.259
but I think we need to go get

01:01:07.278 --> 01:01:08.480
the data to prove this.

01:01:09.659 --> 01:01:10.179
And we did.

01:01:10.659 --> 01:01:11.920
And so thank you for hanging out with

01:01:11.960 --> 01:01:14.184
me on another live stream.

01:01:14.884 --> 01:01:17.367
I will drop this in the link below

01:01:17.706 --> 01:01:19.449
so you can see access to that data.

01:01:19.489 --> 01:01:20.949
It will take us a few minutes to

01:01:21.030 --> 01:01:21.490
do that,

01:01:21.510 --> 01:01:22.952
so it's not going to immediately be there.

01:01:24.012 --> 01:01:25.195
But if you have any questions or comments,

01:01:25.235 --> 01:01:25.594
hit us up.

01:01:25.715 --> 01:01:26.916
If we can help you in real estate,

01:01:26.956 --> 01:01:29.318
hit us up at resg.com and have an

01:01:29.438 --> 01:01:30.579
amazing day.

01:01:30.659 --> 01:01:31.360
Laters, people.