Your Utility Bills Are About To Skyrocket

0:00 · Start with your utility bill

0:00 ↗Welcome to the Anton Stener podcast. Today I have one question for you, Anton. Why is my utility bill bill going up and is it going to go higher? >> Yes. [laughter] >> Okay. Why? What is happening? Uh I heard some scary stuff earlier in the week and

0:19 ↗I'm kind of afraid of what's going to happen. >> I think everyone should really take a look at your utility bill. Burn it in your memory because the number you see there is dead. It's getting ready to change. And in 2024, we had almost two

0:34 ↗million Washingtonians vote yes on the initiative to protect natural gas. And then just right around the corner, September 17th here in the last two weeks, the Supreme Court justices of Washington State in a six to3 decision said, "No, no, no.

0:55 ↗Washingtonians, general public, we disagree with you." and they just erased that initiative. And the politicians and utility companies are going to tell us basically two stories. They're going to say, "One, no one's coming to rip your furnace out tomorrow.

1:13 ↗Two, electrification is clean, cheap, and abundant." One of these stories is true for now. And that is the trap of what we're seeing in front of us right now. Two. Story number two is false based on the math, the physics, what's actually happening.

1:34 ↗They want electric cars everywhere. They want the electrification of everything. The grid can't handle that. >> One thing that I think people don't realize if you grew up here in Washington state is we have very reasonable utility bills, especially

1:52 ↗when it comes to natural gas. Because natural gas, we have an abundance of it in Washington state. >> We have an abundance of natural gas and of hydroelectric power. >> Yeah. >> So hydro is the cheapest technically,

2:05 ↗>> but we'll get into the reasons why natural gas is so essential for the grid right now. >> And in a lot of other states and cities, they're still burning coal. Their electricity just really expensive. Uh, and when I say expensive, it's because

2:20 ↗that's what they use to l uh heat up their food or, you know, uh, run their stoves. And that's why what's happening here, what you're talking about is a big deal because, correct me if I'm wrong, they're trying to take away our natural gas altogether, which seems kind of

2:36 ↗extreme. They are taking away our natural gas and that's where we're

2:40 · PSE increases and the household budget

2:40 ↗going. So PSC electric rates in went up 12% in 2025, 12% in January 2026, and they're asking for 16.75 on residential electric in 2027. >> They're asking for a 16% raise. the government

3:00 ↗>> Puget Sound Energy PS. This means, and this is from PSSE's own data, the home owner will pay an additional $888 more per year by 2029. >> That doesn't make sense. Is that a tax or is it because costs are going up?

3:23 ↗Woo! So good. Such good questions. Good job. This is the calamity of errors. This is ideology not meeting economic reality again. It's the grid the the utilities own planners say that the position of surplus electricity towards not having

3:45 ↗enough power at critical times. We are moving from this surplus electricity to not even having enough. So they have to raise rates. I've got to change the way we're doing it. And for those of you that are literally just joining us, I'm Anton Stener. I've been in real estate

4:02 ↗since 2003. We do new construction. We do land development. So, this is something we plan in, something we have to pay attention to on a regular basis. And now I'm telling our investors, hey, you need to make sure where you're buying something, look at the utilities

4:19 ↗because if you're paying for the utilities on that multif family or that commercial building or that warehouse, we got to start looking into that. For the the properties that have big HOAs on them, we got to start paying attention to what utilities are being covered by

4:34 ↗the HOAs and how much of that bill you're going to get stuck with. because I like to spend the time like digging through these things. And this is like the prime example. This is ideology, policy, economic realities, and real estate and new construction. This is

4:51 ↗like my happy spot. So, hit that subscribe button if you want to talk more about these things that affect us

4:58 · Natural gas, building codes and choice

4:58 ↗here in Washington State. >> I mean, this is nuts. I love cooking with natural gas. So, >> if they got rid of it, are they going to do that for houses like mine that are currently connected? Are they going to just shut it off?

5:11 ↗>> So, here is, you know, how everyone likes to put things off or put things out there and they like to put their spin on it. One side says, "It's okay. It's not a big deal. We still got natural gas. You can make it happen." If you if anyone here

5:28 ↗in the comments has ever filled out a Washington state energy code worksheet, a WCC West. If you've ever tried to fill one out, you need an engineering degree to fill them out. I got a degree in biochemistry. I read the freaking sheet. And I go, I don't know what that means.

5:48 ↗I don't know what that means. And you got to pick up the phone and you got to call people and you got to chat with the HVAC guy, with the plumber, with the appliance guy to figure out what the efficiency is going to be on everything because you have to meet a certain code.

6:04 ↗What they've done is they've they haven't outlawed natural gas. They have made natural gas cost prohibitive. >> Oh, because it's not getting up to the code standards that they're setting, the new ones. This is the climate commitment act BS coming and fighting us from

6:20 ↗again. >> Oh, so it's a indirect way of getting rid of natural gas. >> This is a direct way and an indirect way. This is okay. This attack was very smart. It changed building codes. It changed energy codes and it changes the

6:39 ↗fact that through the climate commitment act, places like the Puget Sound energy have to start getting all of their energy by a certain time period. I believe it's 2030 from all renewable resources. That's not possible in Washington state.

6:57 ↗And these judges that are supposed to be for the people, that are supposed to represent the will of the people. I want

7:05 · I-2066 and Washington’s initiative history

7:05 ↗to get you guys the exact number. 1.94 million people voted in 2024 to protect natural gas. Then it was appealed. And as it was appealed, there was, you know, basically a an environmental group that appealed it. It goes to the Washington State Supreme Court. In the Washington

7:26 ↗State Supreme Court, six judges said no because it violated what they call the single subject. The single subject is where it's supposed to only address one item, but they said it barred gas utilities uh to keep serving eligible customers.

7:46 ↗It barred the UTC from approving rate plans and restrictions. And then it caused the state building council um codes that prohibit penalize or discourage gas barred cities and counties and error agencies from doing the same and it rolled back parts of a

8:05 ↗house bill because it was it it had more than one item. They said it's not single subject. And we're going to get into in a minute how our Washington state supreme court justices are using this idea of single uh item to remove what the voters are

8:26 ↗actually saying. See, when we put out an initiative, that means hundreds of thousands of Washingtonians said yes, we want to get this on the ballot. When an initiative is approved, it is designed to push back against a mistake that the legislators have made that the public

8:45 ↗doesn't approve. But now our Supreme Court is demonstrating a pattern of ideology specifically when it comes to taxes, control, and the climate >> and aka utilities >> aka control. >> So well, [laughter] what are they do?

9:04 ↗So, how do they disregard old initiatives? >> They're not disregarding old initiatives. Let's go into this one specifically. >> Okay. >> So, almost 2 million, 1.94 million

9:17 ↗Washingtonians said, "Yes, we want natural gas." >> Yes. >> When was that? >> Uh that was in 2024. Okay. And this ruling just happened September 17th. The six judges uh justices said no. Three of

9:31 ↗them dissented. The three that dissented said that when they dissented, they're basically saying that we agree it should be upheld. They're saying we agree with the people and they're also even saying it

9:50 ↗that they should have maybe just kept parts of it. But what this does is when they say no, it erases the whole initiative. And they haven't just done this with this one. Okay, ladies and gentlemen, if you

10:07 ↗believe that some of these initiatives should have been passed, you know, and not struck down, or if you believe this is ideology, let us know in the comments. The $30 car tabs I695 struck down in 2000. The tax roll back limiting property taxes struck down in

10:27 ↗2001. That was I722. I747, a 1% property tax growth cap struck down in 2007. I 1053 23 majority vote to raise taxes struck down in 2013. Have we noticing a trend here? Taxes control.

10:52 ↗1366 the sales tax cut struck down in 2016. $30 car tabs again struck down in 2020. Natural gas just struck down in 2026. So, what I want you to be thinking about is all of a sudden these justices are massively violating the will of the people. Number one. Number two, it makes

11:13 ↗us kind of question democracy. If Washingtonians by a majority are saying yes at the ballot, why are these justices then saying no? and they're using this this thing called the single subject rule. My fear though is because this is a clear pattern. How clear is

11:31 ↗this pattern? It's so clear. And uh do you think AI is biased? >> I think that it could be biased.

11:39 · AI, sources and critical thinking

11:42 ↗>> Okay, so check this out. GPT >> Mhm. >> and Claude both told me this was not a clear pattern. And I said, Claude, can and I said, both those models, can you define the word ideology for me? And it defines ideology and it says a group of

11:59 ↗beliefs or a system. I said, so is this then ideologically motivated that magically anything that affects control, taxes, or a government body gets struck down. But we have initiatives that pass and the Supreme

12:16 ↗Court doesn't overturn them. And the models go, "No, no, no. That's not how that works. You're making a a jump in correlation." I said, 'Really go run the percentage that have been struck down versus the percentage that haven't. And the model goes, oh, the

12:35 ↗majority that have been struck down have been in relation to control. When I say control, I'm talking government bodies, aka the do, the UTC. Okay, that's the car tabs, that's the natural gas and taxes and and I said, "Okay, well,

12:54 ↗what percentage of Washingtonians voted on these, you know, as a percentage of the population?" And then finally both models go after I pound on them for a while, it goes, "Okay, I agree. This is showing a clear sign this could be ideologically motivated."

13:12 ↗I was like, "You think?" In other words, >> why does that matter though if Chad GPT is biased in that sense? >> It matters because what happens is people are trusting AI models. >> They shouldn't. >> They shouldn't. But they are though,

13:27 ↗Benji, and our listeners, they're trusting them like it's an absolute fact. like what they're telling them is the truth because they're so good at paring back to us what we want and talking to us in a manner we want to hear that you kind of naturally agree

13:45 ↗with it. And so you have to have this kind of crazy critical thinking to say, "Wait a second. Is that true? Can you prove that to me? What does the data look like? Run the data right now. Let's go through it together." I don't think enough people are questioning the

14:00 ↗information that's being pushed to them. Oh, I don't even use chat GBT very much anymore. I just I have started to do a Google search in addition to doing the AI search. >> Oh, I like this. Yes. >> And then just going back to old school

14:13 ↗to really compare like how many times because you know what happened to me? There was too many times where it asked the exact same question, the exact same way, and it would give me two totally different answers. like it was it knew like I was looking for a different

14:28 ↗answer or it was maybe framing it like it's in a different format. Yeah. But the actual answer >> was totally different. >> Yeah. >> So like a good example is like what's the top five places um that are serving

14:43 ↗the best seafood or whatever, right? >> I'll ask that same question and the five is different the second time from the first time. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Now I understand with like chat GT any kind of AI you have to give it

14:56 ↗context. >> Well that's the thing people are asking like Google related kind of searches. >> Yes. >> And then you know and maybe the search results are different but the difference is you go in there and you determine

15:08 ↗what the five are based off of what you search or you decide hey this website is good enough for me. >> So the reason kind of bring this up is going back to your question about the Supreme Court justices and this pattern. Yeah,

15:22 ↗>> I feel like you're like the master at doing these AI searches or whatever, but you have to give it context on what even ideology is, your definition of ideology and define the ideologies, right? Because there can be like spectrums.

15:38 ↗>> Well, when I'm preparing and doing research, what I actually instruct the models to do is I is I say remove all political bias. I want unbiased data. I want the data and for the data to show what the facts are. Remove your opinion and remove even the author's opinion and

16:02 ↗where you got it. >> Do you say that at the very beginning? >> It's it's in every deep research problem. >> Okay. Can I go back to this because I think it can be confusing. >> The the gist of what you're saying is

16:13 ↗voters are voting to approve certain

16:14 · Courts, voters and accountability

16:16 ↗things for Washington state. Yes. Initially >> and then the Supreme Court justices which are the judges. There's five of them. >> There is nine of them. >> Nine of them, right? They are striking

16:28 ↗them down. So, let's go through some of these 30 car $30 car tabs. We want that, right? Because it keeps it. Okay. And then the justices are striking down. Tax roll back and property tax limits. People want a limitation to how much we can get tax. That's getting struck down.

16:45 ↗>> Think about this. How much has your property taxes gone up in the last decade? >> Oh my gosh, it's so crazy. >> Yeah, but like it raises my mortgage. You know, I had a mortgage that I knew that I was going to pay and now it's

16:55 ↗like way more because of taxes only, not because of the mortgage. Um 1% property tax growth cap. That's just like slowing down. Same thing got struck down. This is where it gets confusing. >> 23 vote to raise taxes. Uh that one is it would take a twothirds

17:14 ↗vote. Oh yeah. Of the government. So in other words, not just a majority, a a super overwhelming majority. >> And then the last big one was to keep natural gas. All these are being struck down. So that's the thing too. Do you even need chat to tell you if this is

17:30 ↗biased or not? It's like or it's like ideology. This is just clearly a uh a kind of almost like an abuse of power. >> I agree. 100% agree. >> And and the the the thing is too, >> our justices probably lean more one type of ideology.

17:50 ↗>> Yes, of course. So the justices what happens is they don't naturally time out. They play this game. >> What happens is they're like, "Oh, I'm going to retire in two years." They retire at the right time so the sitting governor can elect the person that they

18:11 ↗want to come onto the court so they can stack the court. >> How is this even a thing? How why why do the justices have the power to overturn what the people vote for? >> That is a very good question in in this regard. But generally speaking, our form

18:30 ↗of government in the United States works really well and it's amazing. >> Yeah. >> And I love that. What I don't like is, and this can happen anywhere, there is one party rule for a long period of time. So in Washington state, one party

18:46 ↗rule, long period of time. So you're getting pushed all the way to one side. So there's nothing neutral about what's happening. The cool part or the good part I guess I would say is we do have five of them up for election in November. Your vote matters. Go vote.

19:01 ↗>> So basically what you're saying is cuz you're probably cherrypicking these initiatives too. There's way more than just these like >> No, these are all the ones that were struck down. >> Yeah, just struck down though. But how

19:11 ↗many initiatives are there just total in general? >> Um there were a bunch more initiatives that passed that weren't struck down. >> Okay, got it. >> So for example, liquor. >> Yeah. when when we won when

19:22 ↗Washingtonians said we want our booze >> does the judges also want their booze too >> and the judges said we want our booze too we can agree with that >> so okay what I'm trying to get at is >> even though I said how can this be that

19:34 ↗is the system that we have created for ourselves and it is agreed that it's good what you're just saying is the judges are just leaning towards a certain ideology >> yes >> that's striking down what would just be

19:46 ↗generally thought of as good for everyone right regardless of ideology and they're striking it. And then the question is why, right? >> Because Washington state has become such a tax hungry machine that it has to have the revenue so it can keep spending.

20:03 ↗>> Our government's hungry for our money. >> Our Washington States government has shown it has an inquenchable thirst for your dollars. And next, I literally just

20:13 · The economics of electrification

20:13 ↗wanted to talk about like this idea of the ban. So Washington state politicians are literally going to stand up and they're going to use their gymnastics, their word gymnastics, and they're going to say, "Well, it's not really a ban. It just bans new gas hookups."

20:31 ↗And the other side will say, "They're coming for you and you got to rip all of your appliances out." Neither one is completely true. Now, I will tell you that today they're not coming for you and you have to rip all your appliances out. But do you believe in the future

20:49 ↗that they could pass something else and force the retrofit would Washingtonians because, you know, we've gone so deep. Do you believe because of things like the Climate Commitment Act and the taxing and the millionaire tax that at some point they

21:05 ↗could just turn around and say, "Ah, we want you to retrofit your whole house." I do believe that's possible in the future. And that's actually my fear and why I wanted to talk about this a little bit more. And so basically, it prohibits new residential and and uh commercial

21:23 ↗construction from having natural gas. It's it's still available in the code, but you can't make it economically feasible because you put in a gas furnace, it now requires extra credits, which just adds more money on. We've talked about on this podcast and on this

21:41 ↗channel a million times how expensive construction already is here in Washington state. So, for example, if you wanted you're like, I have to have a heat pump that's gas and I want a gas stove and I want a gas fireplace, then be prepared to have like R30 insulation,

22:01 ↗triple pane windows, okay? Massive insulation in the roof, zero air leaks throughout the thing. So, I'm talking like zip sheeting on the exterior, everything taped down. You go, "Well, Anton, how much is that?" If you if you're like, "I am getting natural

22:18 ↗gas in in my home." Be prepared to add 150 grand minimum to the price tank price tag to make up for that. >> Why would they Okay. Why would they make you do more to your house? because you're going to use natural gas versus using electricity.

22:37 ↗>> It's how the freaking energy code works. It just drives me insane. >> That doesn't even sound logical. >> It's not logical. This is why two million Washingtonians were like, "We want natural gas. >> We want natural gas, but not with the

22:52 ↗extra cost of higher regulations." >> The initiative allowed natural gas to stay. It repealed some of the crazy building codes and wasn't going to force people to retrofit even in a remodel. So, let me give you an example. What's going to happen is if you want to

23:12 ↗replace your gas range, for example, >> yeah, >> you're going to be able to replace your range like for like, but you can't put in a more efficient one. H interesting. >> Why?

23:27 ↗because the code doesn't allow it >> to get a more efficient Isn't that the whole point to like to like make make the house more efficient? Why would they not let you >> get an a gas furn a gas stove that's more efficient or is it gas stove or gas

23:45 ↗furnace? >> I was talking your cooking stove furnace. >> Yeah. Yeah. But the >> furnace, hot water tank, it doesn't matter. You can replace like for like unless it requires a permit or if you're

23:56 ↗doing a major addition or a remodel. If you do a major addition or remodel, they are going to if it requires permits, they're going to make you replace them. So then you start going down the price tag list and you go, "Oh, well, how much does this stupid stuff cost?"

24:10 ↗>> Mhm. >> How many old homes don't have a 200 amp service inside of them because they have gas? So think about that. So, first off, you >> Yeah. Yeah. The where the stove is at, right?

24:25 ↗>> Where the stove, the dryer, the HVAC, the barbecue stub. >> And you should explain what a 200 uh what do you call? Yeah. What that is? >> So, generally speaking, in new construction right now, we're putting in 200 amp services.

24:42 ↗>> And that's just your box. Like, you open the box and there's a number of switches, but there's 200 amps of power in the box. >> Got it. A lot of older homes are like 100 amps or 150. That means there's no room to go

24:57 ↗put the plug in for the dryer that's now electric. There's no room >> Oh. >> to put the HVAC on there. There's no room to put the range on there. So, you got to expand the panel. How much How much is that?

25:12 ↗>> Yeah. >> So, you expand the panel. That panel expansion, depending on where the power is and where you're at, you're looking at a minimum of probably seven grand to 20 grand >> for like a standard three-bedroom, two-b

25:24 ↗house >> to just expand from 100 amps to 200 amps. >> How much again? >> 100 amps to 200 amps. >> How much does it cost? >> 10 to 20 grand guaranteed.

25:34 ↗>> Oh my gosh. To upgrade. Most people don't have enough to like replace their fridge. Most people don't have enough in their current panel to be able to put in the electric plug for the car. And now you want to put all of the appliances on there. See, what I'm getting at is is

25:51 ↗all of these appliances are now going to be hitting the power grid. >> I know what you're really saying. >> What am I really saying? >> People should become electricians. >> Well, when we talk about opportunities at the end, that was actually one of the

26:04 ↗opportunities I laid out. the if you got to replace your heat pump, your heat pump, you know, to go electric is going

26:10 · Retrofits, rebates and replacement costs

26:12 ↗to be anywhere between 12 to 30 grand. Uh uh a hot water tank is going to be 3,000 to 6,500. Your range is going to be anywhere between 2,200 to 5 grand. Now, of course, it can go higher. There's always a higher end. Like if you go buy a

26:29 ↗Subzero, a Wolf, you know, something really expensive, the range is going to cost more. So, a lot of these full conversions estimate wise, you're looking at anywhere between 20 to 60 grand if you've got to convert your house. Plus, these tax credits are gone.

26:44 ↗These subsidies are gone. Okay. I have a question for you. >> Yes, sir. >> The whole point of today's conversation though was why are utility bills going to go up? So, in addition to the cost of

27:01 ↗retrofitting or adding more amps to your electricity and even just like the the cost of like uh I don't know the fee to get more energy efficient. Why is the actual utility bills going to go up?

27:15 · What is driving energy rates?

27:15 ↗>> I love it. I love it. The utility bills are going up right now because the climate commitment act is forcing the change of energy. And let me find PUB PS and the uh uh where their rates are and why >> and this is related to that why it's

27:40 ↗going to go up another 16% in 2027. So PSSE's numbers is going up basically another 17%. Because PSSE has to buy carbon credits to comply with the Climate Commitment Act >> because they're using natural gas

27:56 ↗>> because they're using natural gas and coal. >> That just seems like paying for nothing. >> It is 1,000% paying for that. >> And then and then us, the customers of these utility services, has to eat the cost. We have to pay that money. We have

28:12 ↗to pay it out of our pockets. Businesses have to pay it out of their pockets because we decided on this thing called the Climate Commitment Act. It when someone creates carbon emissions, they have to go buy these credits to offset carbon emissions.

28:29 ↗>> It's like guilt payments. >> You're guilty for making the earth more polluted. Even though literally if you think about the whole world, >> all these other countries, everyone's doing it. And don't get me wrong, I am a tree hugger at heart. Like I love the

28:45 ↗forest. I love nature. I love clean air, clean water, all that kind of stuff. But there there is a certain need for, you know, uh energy and utilities and just running our home. So like it's inevitable. But then >> it's just crazy to me. I mean, I guess

29:01 ↗for me, like I just can't fathom this because I thought there was actual extra costs to getting the natural gas. I thought like they were making the the facilities more efficient. So, you're saying these are literally payments that is being forced? Yes. on the

29:22 ↗utility companies because people determine, you know what, >> we need to pay money and then where's that money going? >> So, it goes into the fund for the climate commitment act. We talked about this on a previous episode. Our

29:35 ↗listeners, our subscribers, they already know this. If you've not done that, hit that magic button. Hit that hype button. We need it because remember we talked about in our previous episode less than 3% of the money from the climate commitment act is actually being spent

29:50 ↗on the climate and the rest is just going into all these NOS and programs and BS and being just just splashed and you know fittered away >> and that's a whole another discussion about is it being managed well is it actually helping people or is it going

30:06 ↗to services for Washingtonians? I mean, the other the other uh um Yeah, I like this line right here in your notes, by the way. >> Yeah, go ahead, read it. >> Politicians sell you the future, your utility sends you the invoice, which is

30:21 ↗a good segue [laughter] to what you're saying because >> yes, >> the climate uh commitment act. Yes. >> And all these programs and services, they sound nice, right? Saving the planet. Also, we're going to have these

30:34 ↗programs for you and Washingtonians, but ultimately we have to pay. >> Yes. >> Through our utility bills. >> Yeah. >> It's like another tax. >> It's absolutely another tax

30:46 ↗>> in a time where everything's so expensive.

30:50 · Fuel mix, winter peaks and reliability

30:50 ↗>> So, Snowish County PUB gets 75% of its power from BPA's federal hydro. Seattle City Light runs on its own BPA dams with 77% hydro. PSE, which is investorowned, 1.2 million electric and 900,000 gas customers. In 2024, power was 32% gas and 18% coal, about half fossil fuels.

31:22 ↗So, they are then having to pay that. CEDA compliance added 820 million in power and balancing costs from 2022 to 2025. These numbers are insane and it's literally selfforced and destructive to our businesses to the middle class and Washingtonians in

31:47 ↗general. I want to talk next about the this gas ban and how gas is actually a buffer in our system because I think people don't realize this. When does peak energy demand happen? It happens at two times. >> Uh in the year or in the day?

32:04 ↗>> In the day. >> Oh, like in in a house. I I'd imagine. >> Um I mean I I I think it's when you get home from work. >> Bingo. Early in the evening >> and first thing in the morning. Yeah,

32:17 ↗because that's when you wake up and you turn on the stove to cook >> and the heat turns back on. >> Yeah. Right. >> To heat the house back up from being off overnight. Yeah. >> So, literally, generally speaking, 6:00

32:28 ↗a.m. is peak load. >> Okay. >> And then approximately 5 to 6 p.m. is like our secondary peak load. >> Okay. >> Now, someone can correct me in the comments, but I I'm trying to get to

32:37 ↗where I'm going. You already mentioned climate. So, you remember a couple years ago or a few years back, we had that like super crazy cold spell. You remember that? Mhm. >> And it was just really freezing out. The problem is is they want a heat pump in

32:52 ↗every home. So they don't want you to put in a furnace. They want you to put in a heat pump. What happens to a heat pump when it's super freezing cold out like that? It >> doesn't work. >> They don't work.

33:03 ↗They literally don't work because they're below their efficiency threshold. >> Well, when you say efficiency threshold, they're just they just don't work. Period. Like right. They're only good to a certain cold temperature.

33:18 ↗>> It's not even about efficiency. It just won't work. It can't convert it out. Right. >> It can't convert it out. You're absolutely correct. So, it's just not working. Now, during those cold snaps and during those peak spells,

33:31 ↗what? So, power is a constant because it most of it comes from hydroelectric, >> right? >> So, the water's going through, it's spinning the turbines and making the power. That's a constant. What can flux up and down? Natural gas.

33:49 ↗>> Yeah. Well, natural gas will just always be there. >> Natural gas can flux up and down because it's in a pipe. >> Yeah. Under the ground. >> We can grab more of it. >> Yeah.

34:00 ↗>> We can't force more water through the turbine >> and you can't force, you know, God to raise the temperature of outside. [laughter] >> Bingo. Yeah. Bingo. And so what that means though is natural gas is currently

34:13 ↗one of the buffers that takes us through those crazy cold snaps or the times when we need a massive amount of electricity. >> I'm a good example. Did I tell you I have a heat pump, right? A just a standard heat pump. So I heat and cool my house with a heat pump. It's great. I

34:30 ↗basically have air conditioning because of this heat pump. I know it doesn't sound right, but I do. But when it gets super cold, I can turn on what it's called. That's funny. Maybe this is part of the climate commitment act, but they call it emergency heat, right?

34:43 ↗>> Yeah. >> Kind of is, but also it just means your furnace will start using natural gas and it heats up the house right away and it's great. Most houses in Washington for a long time were just natural gas because it's immediately available. So

34:58 ↗even though my >> and it's more efficient >> and it's it costs less for us >> and it costs so you used to >> it costs less in certain districts. So I want to point that one out. Okay. >> It's not the same for everyone. So this

35:12 ↗is where the models didn't fail me. I ran the cost I ran the model I even ran the carbon footprints >> because they make it sound like natural gas is horrible. The difference in the and I didn't put it in here, but the difference in the

35:25 ↗carbon footprint between them was like 10 grams. It was such an infot like it doesn't even matter. I want to use these people's exact words, though. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council's 9inth power plan calls for 2,100

35:48 ↗megawws of brand new natural gas generation by 2032 because they know they need the natural gas. Centriia PSSE plans to convert Centriia's coal mine to burn gas. PSC's rate case includes gas turbines and gas

36:09 ↗generation for capacity. The h the hypocrisy is they're squeezing gas out of your home and building gas plants just to keep the lights on because they have to. In Washington state, our power breaks down like this. This is numbers from 2024.

36:27 ↗54.9% comes from hydro. 15.1% comes from natural gas. So it is our second largest source. 9.2% 2% comes from wind, 8.1% comes from coal, 5.6 comes from nuclear, 5.3 is unspecified, and 0.9 or a rounding error comes from solar. Now, if

36:47 ↗I had my personal way, I would love to see more solar and then I would love to see more nuclear. I think it's going to take all of these options, but it's pretty clear that the grid in Washington state is currently surviving and we're not having blackouts

37:06 ↗because of natural gas. So, I don't know how we will electrify everything here in the future. They expect regional demand

37:15 · Demand growth and housing costs

37:16 ↗to grow by 30% in the next 10 years. And so, in other words, we're not keeping pace. P.S. That's no data centers. That's not industry. When they're talking about this, they're talking mostly about just homes. When they're talking about this

37:36 ↗residential uh construction coming in, >> can I just ask you a couple questions? All right. >> What will this do to home costs? >> Great question. >> Well, like I mean, just can you lay it out? If

37:49 ↗>> if they start banning natural gas, right? No, natural gas is now banned. >> It's banned. >> It is banned. >> You might as well call it banned because it's economically prohibitive to do it. >> And that means that

38:05 ↗>> utility bills are going to go up. >> Yes. >> The cost of building a house is going to go up. And how? By how much? Because you build homes, right? The cost the cost of building a home you basically each home now essentially

38:19 ↗will require a heat pump. Natural gas will not be an alternative which means everything has to operate in their electricity. So the average cost and the building association of Washington I think said this better but I want to say it's like it's basically an additional

38:38 ↗15 to 30 grand per home. and these building codes and these energy credits are just getting more stringent. This is what we talk about on a regular basis when we're talking about this idea that the red tape that the unelected bureaucrats are driving up the

38:54 ↗cost of homes and making them unaffordable because the citizens said, "I like my cheap my my natural gas. We like the way it heats. We like it how it feels comfortable." The politicians said, "Hey, we don't we don't want that. that we want all to go away because

39:10 ↗we're ideological. The Supreme Court turned around and said, "You know what? We agree with the politicians and they kicked out the will of the people. This is just another nail in the coffin in the unaffordability in Washington

39:27 ↗state, which just makes us less competitive. At some point, we have to start turning this corner. We cannot constantly have the cost of housing increasing. We cannot have the consumer's utility bills increasing. We cannot have the

39:45 ↗business's bills increasing and expect to have a middle class and expect to have families start here. That's it. >> How and what can you do to stop this? I mean, you could almost call it a crisis, a cost crisis, a self-inflicted cost crisis. What can people do?

40:06 · Participation and investor planning

40:06 ↗>> I believe that Washingtonians need to start really paying attention at the local level to city councils and county councils. And then they have to have more discussions with their state representatives and the state senators about

40:26 ↗it's becoming unaffordable for the middle class, for family formation, and for people to retire here in Washington state. And in order to do that, we have to be able to provide them cheap utilities, cheap housing, and a stable economy so

40:44 ↗that we can get enough taxes in the door. We've got to cut the spending. We got to make housing attainable, not affordable. Attainable. I'm talking buy a single family home that the middle class can then make babies and make the next generation of Washingtonians and

41:01 ↗taxpayers. It's going to require people getting involved. And I make videos about this. We make videos about this because I love real estate. Real estate has been my career path of choice. I'm in love with home ownership because what I've seen over decades is

41:24 ↗how it's a vehicle that creates wealth. But not only that, it creates stability, creates comfort for the family, for the kids to know they're going to be in the same area, in the same school district. And that's what creates communities and that's what creates stability and

41:41 ↗safety. Flipping it over on the investor side, you have to be able to plan for the future. A business has to be able to plan for the future and understand that the rules aren't going to fundamentally change.

41:59 ↗Otherwise, the investors and the businesses just leave the state and go somewhere else. But you got to have business. You got to have the middle class and you've got to have business. So, we're constantly selling real estate, constantly having

42:14 ↗fun. But then we're pushing back, trying to bring light to what's happening because I did not believe this was going to happen. I actually, in my naive optimism, I did not believe the Supreme Court was going to overturn

42:30 ↗this because so many people were for it. And it wasn't Republican, it wasn't Democrat, it wasn't libertarian, it was like a big majority of Washington's population because it affects their pocketbook. And yet the Supreme Court says, "We

42:47 ↗don't care. Get out of here." So these building codes keep increasing, the requirements keep increasing, and we're basically stuck in this little vice grip. I want to give one more example, though, to drive this really home. Has everyone see the little green box in

43:05 ↗your neighborhood? The little green power box. >> Do you know how old that technology is? >> I'm guessing at least 30 to 40 because when I was a kid, I used to sit on them. >> Bingo. That is 40y old technology. That technology

43:23 ↗is set up to where that green box, a typical neighborhood transformer, is between 25 to 50 KVA. And it's basically to serve 4 to eight homes at 3 to 5 kW of peak load. Now, the problem though, if I need a heat pump running 4 to 6KW

43:48 ↗and 10 to 15 on backup strips, I need a heat pump hot water heater. That's another four to 5K. I need a level two EV charger. That's 7.2 to 11K per house. All of a sudden, on a cold winter day, you're looking at 20 to 30KW per house. one transformer that's 120 to

44:11 ↗100 180 KVA on something that's only rated to go to 50. Our infrastructure is not set up to deal with this. That's what I'm trying to say on a like an even bigger level. Like you idiots, you can't rip it all out and then just expect it to work. Why is

44:32 ↗diesel so expensive right now? Because we killed off a bunch of diesel refineries. Why is gas so expensive? Because of the climate commitment act. Do you see a correlation here? Would I like to get rid of the coal?

44:50 ↗Yes. Okay. Problem is coal is cheap and abundant and it's quick. So in a situation where the grid needs load, they can use coal. They can use natural gas. I'd rather just keep the natural gas. But I'd really like to see personally, once again, this is just the

45:07 ↗nerd in me, more of the small nuclear reactors, the small modular reactors, and more solar. But the problem is is is all the regulation going into this. So, think about this. I think this takes us

45:20 · Risks, opportunities and resilience

45:20 ↗right into the problems and the opportunities. The problem is is that PSSE specifically is stuck in a trap. and their trap is because of the Climate Commitment Act, the carbon credits they have to pay. And then a chunk of their power comes from

45:37 ↗natural gas and coal. We've got permanent retirement of like, you know, ripping out working gas furnaces and hot water heaters. So, they were rebates for all of these things. That work goes away. That's gone. You got older homes with the smaller panels

45:58 ↗like we talked about. You've got landlords that are going to pass on these utility bills to the the the renter. Okay? You've got new construction mandates that got a bunch of now money and fees stacked on top of it and we're

46:14 ↗not allowed to use some of the cheap abundant free sources. And the last one is, you know, you're pulling people off of the gas meters. And so the people then who are stuck on the gas meter, that means less people, less spending, less

46:34 ↗infrastructure spending, it means their rates are going up no matter what. Does that make sense? Mhm. >> So the people who are getting gas cheap today are going to get naturally pinched out and be forced to retrofit their home over time because it will become

46:50 ↗economically unfeasible due to lack of infrastructure investment. What's the opportunity? Okay, you kind of already mentioned it. I think this creates another opportunity in construction. It just does. For your electricians, for your plumbers,

47:06 ↗like blue collar, it's cool. Let's go people. Let's get wood shop back in high school, you know, get the vocations back in high school. I think you're going to also start thinking about like how do you pair um existing gas furnaces with maybe like

47:24 ↗backup heat sources that are electric. You're going to see people start to do hybrid things, especially if that cost gets out of control. you're going to see people start um uh skipping or changing how they're how they're dealing with it during cold winter.

47:41 ↗Uh if you do have a working gas system and you're in the right area, you're going to want to keep it. But this is that may become a selling point for homes because there's not going to be them in the future. So if gas stays cheap and it

47:57 ↗doesn't explode in cost, that might become a selling point. a feature point for homes located in those areas. Uh >> yeah, ones that are already >> that are already existing that are essentially grandfathered in where it's

48:11 ↗not exploding in price. Land near closer to the power. It's going to become more valuable in the future and resilience and backups are going to become more uh needed. I think you're

48:29 ↗going to see homes need more power, uh, more batteries, for example, more on-site storage, more backup generators. This is too much hitting the grid all at once. And as this gets force played onto the grid, once again, this doesn't include like any AI or major industry

48:48 ↗buildout. As this gets forced into the grid, we are going to run into grid bottleneck programs. So, you're going to have to make your home more resilient, more sustainable. Um, which is good and bad. One, I kind of like the idea because I'm

49:05 ↗nerdy, but two, it's another cost on top of it. You know, questions before you

49:12 · Your property checklist

49:12 ↗buy something or you sell something, you should be asking like, all right, which utility company is at this exact address? What's the size of the panel that's here? Is there anything open in the panel? How much do I have left? Which appliances in this house are

49:28 ↗reliant upon natural gas? What would the cost be to replace this? If I have to replace this during my my my ownership and then PSC's rates are shooting up. But what happens if all of a sudden PUD has to start mirroring that and other major

49:46 ↗utilities have to start start doing that? Okay, pulling it all together. In the words of our friend Sean, we're gonna land the plane. And I think the Supreme Court did us really wrong on this one. I think they completely violated the will of the

50:02 ↗people. And I think we demonstrated that that um they've done that before. Let me know your thoughts in the comments on that. Two, I think that we really need to be worried about uh the millionaire tax initiative because based on this current track

50:21 ↗record, they may just overturn it and be like, "Oh, it wasn't a single source." It addressed more than one thing. Now, we might have massive public outrage if they do that. Three, this this is starting to change the economics of housing. and you asked some questions,

50:36 ↗but I don't know the answers to all of them because as these rules play out, as the data changes, as our economy changes and our local building industry changes and the utilities change, we're going to have more information. So, this is something we're going to have to revisit

50:50 ↗here in the next 6 months to a year to kind of figure out what the full impact is. Lastly, this doesn't include AI and AI's buildout. AI is a power- hungry beast. What we didn't talk about though is the United States as a whole has a power

51:07 ↗problem. We essentially need our grid. This isn't just a Washington state. This is the United States as a whole. We need to triple the size of our grid. We need to update our grid. This is a bigger problem than just natural gas. But I

51:21 ↗believe Washington state is shooting themselves in the foot with natural gas and taking that offline. So give this a thumbs up if it was worth your time. Share this with someone else who needs to understand what's happening here with natural gas and construction. Drop a

51:38 ↗comment if your utility bill has been rising or if you voted for any of these initiatives and it kind of pisses you off that they overturned them with their ideology. I'm Anton Stener. Thanks for hanging out. Hit us in the next one. We'll see you later.